Jones is 2 levels below Silva in striking. BUT, Sonnen took Silva down many times and Jones took and held Sonnen down. This means Silva will be on his butt for most of this fight.
At 205 pounds Jones wins because Silva will be too weak in the clinch at that weight.
At catch weight I still think Jones wins because he will still have a big advantage. Jones is also a bad matchup for Silva since Jones have tremendous ground and pound (=bloody elbows).
At 185 Silva wins. Even if Jones will make that weight it will be a level playing field and Silva is simply so much better standing up that he will find a way.