Sorry, I gotta disagree with that. Since their last fight here's who they've fought:
Duane Ludwig (Won in Rd.1 at 1:45 by submission)
Rodrigo Gracie (Won by Unanimous Decision)
Ryoto Machida (Loss by Unanimous Decision)
Renzo Gracie (Won by Unanimous Decision)
Georges St. Pierre (Loss by Split Decision)
Renato Verissimo (Won by Unanimous Decision)
Georges St. Pierre (Won in Rd.1 at 4:59 by submission)
Frank Trigg (Won in Rd.1 at 4:05 by submission)
Joe Riggs (Won in Rd.1 at 3:28 by submission)
Royce Gracie (Won in Rd.1 at 4:39 by TKO)
Now not to take anything away from Matt, he did dominate those opponents (except for Verissimo for some reason), but the opponents BJ faced were all better than everyone on Matt's list except GSP of course, and maybe Royce. Even though BJ has a couple losses, he has nothing to be ashamed of and I guarantee he is not sweating it at all. He put up great fights against both Machida and GSP and Machida is a LHW!
You're right that Matt has a good chance to win this but Matt has NOT faced tougher opponents than BJ. Other than Sean Sherk, the only tougher opponent that Matt has faced in his career that BJ has not faced, is B.J. Penn.
It's true too think about it. In other words, other than Sherk, the only opponent in Matt's career that is tougher than anyone in BJ's career, is BJ.