Like you say he probably wouldn't of been finished at the end of the first, but the 2nd round is all just speculation, anything can happen in an mma fight. I also agree that Aldo would of gone on to win, probably convincingly. But the messy last min robbed Aldo of a legitimate win.
How can you claim it to be legitimate based on a speculation of what Aldo "would" of done.
Because its not like Mendes never got him to the ground or is a killer on the ground. He got Aldo down from the same position on Aldo's back and Jose was right back up and previous to that Aldo had made Mendes look foolish. At that point Mendes had literally nothing in the stand up so Mendes spamming take downs not working at all for a round it was only a matter of time. Aldo is also not even close to the first guy to hold the cage and then get a stoppage, yet no one calls those wins illegitimate.
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