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I agree with everyone who says Fitch deserves a title shot. I think he should be ahead of Hughes and ahead of GSP, because the two of them have yet to finish an opponent. I think he should have fought GSP instead of Koscheck. Frankly, I think he's getting shafted in this division because of all of the posterboys.
Still, the more I think about this matchup, the more I realize that this is probably the worst possible matchup for Fitch. I mean, Serra and GSP both have about as much experience, even if they've been doing it at the upper echelon. The other important thing to remember is that everyone in this division right now is really a grappler, including Fitch. Gono has the kind of kickboxing style that can work really well against grapplers.
I think that now that Gono is down at 170, where he always should have been, he's going to present alot of problems for guys, and I think that Fitch is way more likely to get caught and put to sleep by Gono than even by GSP (I'm not saying Gono is a better fighter, it's just a different matchup).
Here's how I see this fight going:
Round 1
The bell opens and both fighters are confident. Fitch is willing to trade hands for a little while, because he has some confidence in his standup and has watched some tape of Gono. Gono works the classic leg kick for about a minute, using short two and three punch combos to counter Fitch's attempts to throw bombs.
Eventually Gono starts to slow Fitch down and do some noticeable damage to his thigh. Gono then drops a rib kick that hurts Fitch. Fitch may grab for the takedown here and eat a knee as he closes the distance or he might let it go and wait a little while before he shoots.
Fitch's fatigue forces him to shoot in the final minute or so. Gono backs up and lands a few crisp punches. Fitch is clearly get warn on and Gono continues to counter punch.
Round 2
Fitch comes back hard and lands a few sold punches on Gono, forgetting about the possibility of a shot for a second. As he comes away from an exchange, he drops his hands. Gono opens up with the short quick combinations that he's been using all night, but instead of only throwing three punches they keep coming.
10 or 15 punches later, Fitch is on his back and Gono is in side control or north-south with Gono throwing his hips into punches until the ref is finally forced to stop the match.
I think that Fitch will have a hard time with Gono's technical striking ability and we will see Akihiro really put on a technical display. Eventually, the counter punches and snap punches will get to Gono and, like many American fighters do, he will start to swing for the fences as his shots get stuffed. Gono will get grazed, but not take any serious damage, and when he feels ready, he'll land that final comination to end the night.
Maybe I'm underestimating Fitch (though I've picked him to win all of the fights he's won thus far), and maybe Gono is in trouble, but that's just not how I see this going down.
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