Good to see that your making some progress, both with the weight and with the skills, before NAGA. Hopefully you'll do well, since your training seems to be going well.
over the last 3 weeks I've lost 12 pounds.
1 month until NAGA.
Only 10 more pounds to go. (currently 212)
I'm up to 5 miles per day jogging. Keeping the caloric intake around 1800. Still spending 2 hours on the mat 4 days per week. I need to work the transitions from takedowns to submission more... even though I know the moves they aren't in muscle memory yet.
Pulled off a heel hook, straight ankle, and an armbar last night. Didn't get submitted.
The one thing that I definitely suggest you work on in training, especially in sparring, is the guard break. The leglocks (mostly lower-leg locks) that you have seem to be pretty good, and if you can open guard you can help to set those up alot. I have used a similar game plan in some of my smoker matches, using a canopener to open guard or, in the event that they fall with the guard open and try to close it, to keep them from giving themselves that position.
I'm not sure what the NAGA rule is on using the can opener to keep them from getting the hips in to keep the guard open, I'd be sure to ask your individual referee if you choose to try that technique out (though there are others that work really well). Still, it's a good trick to have in the bag, it's done good things for me.
The other thing to just be aware of, and it's a thought I've had that I wanted to throw out because it's a mistake I've seen alot of the no-gi beginner guys make at NAGA, especially in the bigger weightclasses, is posture. Just because you don't have the belt to push up doesn't mean you should drop your head into his chest. While lower level opponents might not be able to attack it, all it requires is one skilled guy who knows how to slip his legs over or get his hips out, and you're caught in a sukata.
Put your hands under the rips and that will give you alot of control over your opponent.
Keep up the training, ruf.