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For BJ Penn to win in my opinon:
He's gotta come in expecting to be pushed against the cage, defending the shot, so to in some ways to defend that, he's got to counter it with strikes, work the hands, work the clinch, using angles and combinations catch him on the inside to really make Sherk think twice about going in for the double leg.
Or Alternatley he could decide to use his Ju-Jitsu skills and decide to try and submit Shrek, workin off his back trying for arm bars etc, risky business though against a strong ground n pound fighter like Sherk who's good at passing peoples guard and getting into a more dominant positions and really reigh down with punches and elbows and bust BJ up bad. But to BJ's credit he is good off his back and could be able to control Sherk posturing for the ground n pound. But if the fight goes the distance he could end loosing a decision for being on his back and not being in control of the action. In my opinon for BJ to win he's gotta work the stand-up, defend the take-down and come into the fight in good shape and be ready to go 5 rounds.
For Sean Sherk to win:
For me i personally think Sean Sherks going to come into this fight in better shape than BJ Penn, so i imagine he's gonna be the one to be pushing the action, taking the centre of the octagon, using his boxing skills to set-up the take-down attempts, pushing BJ against the cage working the dirty boxing, using elbows on the inside trying bust BJ up bad. What he's gotta look out for is that BJ Penn is great at defending the take-down, the guy is incredibley flexible, so he's gotta make sure that when he goes into the shot, hes 110% commited on taking him down and keeping him there and be prepared to get caught on the way in so to speak, another big threat is the submission game that BJ could try and use, and i think he'll find it harder to pass BJ's guard than in previous fights, so he might like the idea of using his ground and pound skills from within full-guard, BJ as iv said earlier is good at controling peoples posture so he's gotta find a way of getting around that.
Overall: i think this fight is pretty close to call really, i think either figher could win this based on who can impose their game plan, whos in better shape, whos got the better stand-up. If i had to choose id say Sean Sherk will win i just don't see BJ being in as good shape as him and lasting 5 rounds based on previous performances, Sherk will push the pace no doubt, BJ's got to get a quick submission pull something out of nowhere and catch him off-guard or knock him out basically and i just don't think he'll be able to do that.
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