Alvarez is going to win the tournament IMO. He is the best guy left in the stand up game by a lot IMO. His problems will be in the ground game but he has pretty good wrestling so I don't see Aoki or Uno getting him down.
Kawajiri could be a problem for him but I think Alvarez is good enough standing to beat him.
Honestly if he hadn't been facing Dida in the first round I would've picked him to do well because he has real good stand up and likes to brawl.