Here's how I see the outlook of this fight:
Groundpounder v Submission master
Strength advantage: Sherk (obviously)
Cardio advantaget: BJ (I think that if he drops down to 155 his cardio will be great, but it's still pretty close)
Striking: BJ (easily, faster hands, heavier hands and the better chin)
On the ground: Sherk ends up on top, in the guard of BJ. This isn't a good position for Sherk. Let's face it, for Sherk being in BJ's guard is just as bad (if not worse) that being in a standup position with BJ.
Standing: I see BJ stuffing alot of takedowns and feeding Sherk some mean knees and hands, a la his fight with Din Thomas. Obviously, Sherk has a better chin than Thomas, but that isn't really going to matter.
On the ground: I see this staying in BJ's guard and BJ submitting Sherk via a triangle, armbar or omoplata, all three of which are some of BJ's very good submissions.
I like Sherk, I just don't see how he can win this fight.
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