You're right but besides this 50s fight against Eastman, he hasn't fought in a "UFC environment" (cage + URs) in a while. The 1st fight in the UFC is never easy, especially when people expect so much from the fighter. Also he's been inconsistent these last couple of years and lastly, these odds suck IMO. That's enough reasons for me to not bet on him
(I also bet 10 bucks on Belcher)
But I'm cheering for Kang so either way I'll be happy with the outcome.