Posted 10-14-2009 at 11:02 AM by The Don
There are several fights of note coming up I want to give my thoughts on.
Strikeforce / M-1 Global - Saturday Nov. 7th
The first fight i want to talk about is is Gegard "The Dreamcatcher" Mousasi (26-2-1) vs. Rameau Thierry "The African Assassin" Sokoudjou (7-4). Now Sokoudjou is an underdog in this fight even though 6 of his 7 wins are by T/KO, all in the first round, and his losses one being to the current UFC LHW champ Lyoto Machida. Still makes him an underdog. Gegard, who is a training partner of Fedor, is on a fairly impressive 13 win streak. his last loss being to none other then Akihiro Gono to end his previous 8 straight win streak. His wins coming by a mixtures of Submisisons, KO's and TKO's having only failed to finish 5 opponets including his 2 losses and one draw. While it is obvious Rameau has some power and can finish a fight with a KO. I do not think his arsenal of weapons is as deep as that of Gegard.
My Prediction - Gegard Rd 2 T/KO.
Next comes JAKE SHIELDS (23-4-1) vs. JASON "MAYHEM" MILLER (22-6). Now I will be honest here I am a bit biased towards sheilds. I been a fan of his for awhile now. Plus my BJJ instructor is a good friend of Jakes and has trained alot with him. Now both of these guys have some Ultra slick Jiu Jitsu both holding many titles in various Jiu jitsu competitions. Jake has been very impressive as of late with miller more known for his hosting role on MTV's Bully Beatdown. Jake is on a 12 straight win streak, his last 7 wins were by submisison 6 of those in the first round, most notablely being Robbie lawler, who jake being a LW fighter moved up to middle weight for the challenge. Which is where this fight with miller will be for the recently vacated Strikeforce title. (The title was recently Vacated by Cung Lee who is currently persuing an acting carear, and hopes to return to fighting in the future). I think the deciding factor in the fight might be the underrated stand up skills of Jake Shields. if it goes to the ground I think it could be anybodys contest. Miller just seems to have had a string of bad luck in matches lately. going 1-1-1 in his last 3 though his loss was an incredible match against Ronaldo Souza but his most recent match... a rematch against the same ended in a NC. This has the makings of being a fight for the ages. Neither has had to go 5 rounds in awhile, or rather had an opponent able to push them that far. This could be a possibility. Neither fighter is known for KO power and have 7 TKO's and no KO's between them, but I feel it is stand up that will decide this. Many say Jake looks very stiff in the ring and as I stated many feel his striking is sub par. If miller takes jakes stand up lightly and hopes to keep this standing he might be in for a surprise. FRom a recent interview and reading his facebook posts I know Jake is not taking miller lightly in any aspect of this fight. For the outcome of this fight I am having mixed thoughts. It could be a long drawn out decision and a stand up battle going into the late rounds. But if weither fighter makes a mistake both are capable of picking up a quick win by a slick submission.
My prediction - Shields Rd 3 TKO
Lastly on this card...
FEDOR "THE LAST EMPEROR" EMELIANENKO (30-1*-0 1NC) vs. BRETT "THE GRIM" ROGERS (10-0). Now its rare for a man who is 10-0, 9 of which are KO's or TKO's to be an underdog, but you would have a hard time finding anyone who gives Rogers more then a punchers chance. Fedors last loss was 9 years ago (read early entry about Fedor for futher explination) 6 years before Rogers first Pro fight. Rogers most notable win was over Andrei Arlovski in :22 seconds by TKO who 5 months earlier Fedor defeated by KO in 3:14 of the first round. Both men have punching power. but many who haved stepped into the ring with Fedor claim no one has ever hitten them harder. Fedor has survived many tough situations and over come many opponents who were bigger stonger or supposedly better, with wins over several former UFC champions, including 2 wins over Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. Now Rogers is not known for having much of a ground game. Where Fedor has out Grappled Grapplers, and out struck, strikers. Fedor is known for his robot like mentality in the ring showing no emotion even when he wins. His sportsmanship is unparralled, but to look into his eyes before a fight looks as if you are looking into teh eyes of your executioner, and I think mentally he has most opponents beaten before the opening bell. Watch the eyes of Hong Man Choi even Tim Sylvia before the opening bell, weather they will admit it or not they have the look of someone who just got locked in a cage with a hungry dragon. Now one thing going for Rogers in this fight is it is Fedors first time in a cage. Many previous Pride fighters who have come over to the UFC and other groups have not always faired well in a cage. Though I do not feel that this will be a big deal for Fedor. I do not think Rogers really brings anything to the table Fedor really has to worry about. He has fought people who hit harder, are better strikers, better grapplers and has weathered them all.
My Prediction - Fedor 1st rd Ko (utter destruction)
UFC 104 Oct 24th
Only one real fight I want to talk about on this card.
Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida (15-0) vs . Mauricio "Shogun" Rua (18-3) for the UFC LHW title. On 2/3/07 Lyoto made his UFC debut and put together a string of what some called un-exciting Unamious Decision wins. He came into the UFC with an 8-0 record with wins over BJ Penn, Rich Franklin and Stephen Bonnar to his resume. He started to put detractors to rest when he submitted Rameau Thierry "The African Assassin" Sokoudjou then picked apart Tito Ortiz in a 3 round battle where only once was Lyoto in any trouble then he KO'ed Thiago Silva and then Rashad Evans to win the title. Rua on the other hand boasts 15 T/KO wins and has a who's who list of wins to Rival Fedor, including several that match Fedor, Big Nog and Kevin Randleman. Rua is known as a game striker who likes to take it to his opponents a style that has so far utterly failed against the likes of Machida. In fact so far no one has been able to figure out the puzzle machida represents. His striking is on par with the best and his ground game is on the same level. he has incredible take down defense. It leaves me wondering what Rua is going to try that no one else has, and is it going to work. being a fan of both fighters it is hard to pick. Rarely do I choose against Rua. I just don't think though he is going to be the one to defeat Lyoto.
My Decision - Machida Rd 2 TKO.
Well these are just some coming up that I wanted to comment on.. there are more to come.
My personal blog can be read [URL="http://thedonsmmabjj.blogspot.com/"]here[/URL].