franklin def has his chances against Filho, so ur not crazy.
Filho is(to me) Arona's smaller twin. But he uses his hands a bit more, and keeps his chin a bit more down. But i think overall hes overrated. He hasnt beat anybody worth mentionning so far, except maybe misaki?
Ninja's career started out strong but hes lost to everybody lately. Chonan is only known because he flyed heel-hooked Anderson Silva, but apart from that hes not that great.
All the others are really unknown or average fighters.
Filho is heavier than franklin if you ask me. And i think he can weight around 205 easily, he wanted to enter the LHW GP in 2003 i think, but was injured(was supposed to face dean lister i think?).
I think this fight would be very good, and like you said, i also think Filho would just run by Anderson Silva, because Franklin uses his hands a lot more than his legs(knees), so its harder to take him down, while Anderson Silva will like to clinch and knee, high kicks, low kicks etc..
Anyways, i think Filho is overrated, but i still think he can pull a victory against Franklin. hes like Matt Hughes, but heavier and with better hands, and better BJJ.
Bring back knees strikes on grounded opponents.. Give me good arguments for not having them for crying out loud.
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