Join Date: May 2006
Location: New York City, New York
Statistical analysis is all just calculation. It's close but not perfect. There are some variables we can't take into account, but statistical analysis and stylistic analysis are just basic terms for what guys like Couture do when they're picking fights. Most of us still didn't see Serra KOing GSP coming, or Gonzaga LHKing CroCop, but some guys run as high as 90% on their betting.
There are alot of ways to do it. One is to look strictly at paper, and that works for some guys. They look at statistics like wins and losses in a certain organizations, under certain rules, against certain types of opponents. They analyze style matchups by looking at wins and losses not just in terms of basics, but also in terms of round, type (decision, submission, KO, stoppage), timing (end of the round, right off the bat, more scattered).
The paper guys do pretty well when they look at details, like the ways guys lose as well as the ways that guys win. That's really the key.
I'm a style matchup guy. If I'm looking to bet on a fighter (whether it's money or pride), I want to watch tape on both of the guys, look for mistakes they make habitually, which of their opponents mistakes are they good at taking advantage of, the quality of coaching, setups in the transition game, distance control, footwork (standing and on the ground) and other little things. It's the details, I've been learning recently, that can really change the results of a fight.
That said, I don't ignore paper all together. I definitely pay some attention to stats as well as fun facts. For instance, I knew that Anderson Silva would beat Travis Lutter on the ground because he had superior training in BJJ under Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, who knows how to practically apply Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu in MMA.
Paying attention to all of the nuances makes it alot more difficult than just some system. I'm sure that you could use an algorithm to handicap, but why? You'll miss things and make mistakes, just like everybody else. That's what makes the sport (and sports in general) exciting.
Find your own damn methodology.
Sig by Toxic
Barnett - Toquinho -Werdum - "Nurmie"
Z. Gurgel - Morango - Rocha - Tiequan