nah man. Fedor gets put into submissions from his opponents a lot more than people realize, we can agree on that.
But until now Fedor has slipped or powered out of them. He is good at breaking submissions, but not as good as avoiding them in the first place.
If does Fedor does lose, it will probably from a BJJ artist. My point is sooner or later, hes going to be put into one he won't be able to move out of.
Why? What makes you actually think he will be submitted at some point? Heck people have come much closer to KO/TKOing Fedor than they have submitting him. There hasnt been a single submission that was even well locked, where as there have been times that Fedor was clearly dizzied. Until someone actually does it, or has a hold truly locked in at least, I dont think its even fair to assume he will be submitted in MMA.
Also, to add to that, you can see over his career Fedor has taken many steps to become a much better grappler, and his latest entry into the 09 ADCC is only even more evidence of his desire to improve as a grappler. Considering this effort at training even more, I'd say its more likely that he'll never be submitted, than will eventually be.
Lastly, the ONLY reason he's ever been in so many attempted subs is because of his striking through guard style, which obviously is very conducive to submissions. When you spend as much time striking through someones guard as Fedor does, and not even being concerned about passing guard, clearly you're going to have a lot of attempts against you. You dont see it as much against other fighters because NO ONE strikes through guard better than Fedor, and until someone does, you wont see a similar situation.
Now getting on topic. Its definitely difficult to say who is better, especially if you're talking pure BJJ, as well all know without a doubt that Nogueira is the better MMA BJJ player. I actually want to lean towards Nogueira in this argument and I'm willing to go against the grain here, simply because A) Nogueira is younger, and is really just starting to decline in physical ability, where as Rickson at 50 has already lost a lot of strength and flexibility that he probably had 20 years ago, and B) Nogueira probably has seen more diversity in BJJ than Rickson has, sticking to mostly rolling with other guys in his own school and Brazil.
Like some people said, Rickson is the unicorn of MMA, he's a myth... I base things off what is clearly known, not what may or may not be true. Part of me wants to believe that once the Gracie legendary status was somewhat tainted in MMA that they decided to hype up their next best guy (Rickson) and make sure he never fought so he would never have to prove the ridiculous claims made.
The Gracies are an important part of MMA, and obviously an insanely crucial part to the development of BJJ, but at some point you have to get past the "old greats" and focus on the "now greats"