The risk for Strikeforce is huge, I mean if Fedor loses they end up with an over priced fighter who lost his mystique, its not just Fedor either I mean if Sokky flash Ko's Mousasi then Strikeforces LHW champ will have lost to a guy who couldn't cut it in the UFC, same with the Werdum/BigFoot fight. There are some major risks involved in these 3 fights for a company that is building.
I honestly think you're wrong, and I tend to agree with you.
If Rogers KOs Fedor, he's beaten two top 5 in a row impressively. He'll then be Strikeforce's first homegrown contender, and they can sell Rogers just as well as Fedor or better (since they don't own any of Fedor's fights). Plus a lot of fans in the state are just learning of Fedor, so if he puts up a great well-rounded fight against the much much bigger and more intimidating Rogers, he'll get plenty of attention anyway.
And if Mousasi loses somehow to Sokoudjou (honestly less possible than Fedor losing to Rogers IMO), Sokoudjou is back on track of becoming a huge LHW contender. Having wins against Lil Nog, Arona, Sapp, Mousasi, and possibly Minowaman would be a pretty awesome accomplishment.
I don't think Mousasi losing would be a big deal for them. He isn't well known among casual MMA fans and it's a non title fight for some reason. He should win this fight but Sokky is capable of getting the quick flash KO. Why it's not a title fight I don't know. You'd think since it's going to be nationally televised they would want it to be. Personally, I don't like champions fighting when the belt isn't on the line. Apparently they don't think that Sokky should be fighting for a belt, then why make the fight?
I guess the reason it's not a title fight is some sort of contractual problem with Sokoudjou, but I doubt it'd go more than 3 rounds anyway. But the reason they're fighting is because they couldn't at the Super Hulk Tournament, so the hype is already there.