Your not the best at betting on fights are you CC lol. You just completely ignore the fact that in the first fight, Diaz was constantly trying to take Noons down and he couldnt, his take downs were stuffed, bar one, and then noons scrambled immediately back up to his feet.
Common sense says that diaz doesnt have the wrestling to take down Noons (like in the first fight) and he doesnt have the boxing or power to trouble KJ on the feet. There is a chance diaz can take noons down and win, but its a slim one. Noons beats diaz 9 times out of 10 here.