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Old 10-11-2010, 12:52 PM   #1 (permalink)
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FightMetric on dodgy MMA decisions

For those who don't know what it is, below is a snipbit from the website itself, explaining what FightMetric is. For a more detailed explanation, see the following link: http://fightmetric.com/aboutthestats.html.

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FightMetric is a comprehensive Mixed Martial Arts statistics and analysis system. The system was developed based on a thorough analysis of the sport concentrated on establishing the factors that contribute to fight effectiveness rather than producing merely anecdotal information.

By discarding cosmetically different occurrences (like measuring punches versus kicks) in favor of those factors that actually contribute to fight endings (like measuring head strikes versus body strikes), we can arrive at a clearer picture of a fighter's performance. And with that, we can open the door to a whole new method of analyzing fights and fighters; one rooted in data and demonstrated effectiveness rather than in gut feelings and bandwagon jumping.
So after looking on their website, and their analysis of fights, i decided to compile a list of the more contreversial judges decisions that have been made. My results are below, and i hope you find them interesting!



The system generates both round by round scoring - the 10 point must system like MMA currently uses, and also a FightMetric score winner, more similar to what PRIDE used, where it looks at the fight at a whole.

A good example of the differences to this is the Michael Bisping v Matt Hammil fight at UFC 75. This fight was very contraversial, with the majority of people believing Matt Hammil was robbed of a victory. However, looking at the fightMetric report, it scored the 10 point must system score to Bisping 29-28, but the score winner to Hammil. this is due to it awarding Hammil the 1st round a dominant 10-9 (203-57 pts), narrowly missing out on a 10-8 round. Bisping then won the last 2 rounds, but by a very small margin (77-58 pts and 95-74 pts), to award him the fight 29-28. Looking at the ifhgt as a whole however, Hammil won easily by 335-229 pts.

Basically, this is just another arguement as to how the current judging needs changing, as i believe the fight as a whole should be looked at more than round by round. having .5 rounds would be a solution in my opinion - if it was used in the Hammil-Bisping fight it would have been scored 10-8.5 Hammil, 10-9.5 Bisping, 10-9.5 Bisping, for a 29-28.5 win for Hammil.

Analysed on the list is 29 fights, below are the stats of the 2 methods o nthe 29 fights, and whether the FightMetric report agree's with the actual decision or not.

10 point must system method
Agree: 14 (48%)
Draw: 9 (31%)
Disagree: 6 (21%)

score winner method
Agree: 16 (55%)
Draw: 2 (7%)
Disagree: 11 (38%)


Also, looking at the Excel table, and using both methods combined, of the 29 fights, 5 of them have clearly been the wrong decision according to FightMetric, where it lists the actual winner as the loser in both methods of scoring. Those are listed below:

UFC 104: Lyoto Machida v Mauricio Rua. Machida won via Unanimous Decision. Winner should have been Rua.
UFC 112: BJ Penn v Frankie Edgar I. Edgar won via Unanimous Decision. winner should have been Penn.
WEC 48: Leonard Garcia v Chan Sung Jung. Garcia won via Split Decision. Jung should have won.
WEC 49: Jamie Varner v Kamal Shalorus. Bout was scored a draw. Varner should have won.
UFC 119: Sean Sherk v Evan Dunham. Sean Sherk won via Split Decision. Dunham should have won.


Also, there were 5 bouts which Fightmetric disagreed with the winner and both methds either had it bring a draw or the loser winning. These are listed below:

UFC 86: Forrest Griffin v Quinton Jackson. Griffin won via Unanimous Decision. Should have been Draw or Jackson win.
WEC 43: Benson Henderson v Donald Cerrone I. Henderson won via Unanimous decision. Should have been Draw or Cerrone win.
UFC 105: Randy Couture v Brandon Vera. Couture won via Unanimous Decision. Should have been Draw or Vera win.
UFC 114: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira v Jason Brilz. Nogueira won via Split Decision. Should have been Draw or Brilz win.
Strikeforce Diaz v Noons II: Josh Thomson v Gesius Calvancante. Thomson won via Unanimous Decision. should have been Calvancante win or Draw.



So, the 11 listed above seem the 10 most contraversial judging decisions of recent times.

Sorry for the long post, but i hope you found it interesting! Please post your thoughts, if you agree or disagree etc.
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Old 10-11-2010, 01:19 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Since when Belcher won the fight against Akiyama? Was the decision reversed?
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Old 10-11-2010, 01:22 PM   #3 (permalink)
 
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Interesting read - thanks mate...

According to this the first BJ - Edgar fight was actually pretty desicive in Penn's favor... I saw it as much, much closer but still with Penn as the winner... Just like, dare I say it, the 10-point must system

But again, thanks for sharing mate
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Old 10-11-2010, 01:27 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Budhisten View Post
Interesting read - thanks mate...

According to this the first BJ - Edgar fight was actually pretty desicive in Penn's favor... I saw it as much, much closer but still with Penn as the winner... Just like, dare I say it, the 10-point must system

But again, thanks for sharing mate
Agree, I too did saw Penn as the winner, but thought it was closer. How does the Fight Metric score work anyways?
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Old 10-11-2010, 01:34 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Yea my bad about akiyama, edited it now.

And yea i had Penn winning a close decision in their first fight too. Also had Sanchez winning a close 29-28 against Guida, but FightMetric has it an easy win for Sanchez.
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Old 10-11-2010, 01:36 PM   #6 (permalink)
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http://blog.fightmetric.com/2010/08/...ic-report.html

Have a look at the link above for the Penn-Edgar report. And check out the link below, it explains hoow the points are awarded etc.

http://www.fightmetric.com/aboutthestats.html
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Old 10-11-2010, 04:48 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Very cool read and nice job gathering the stats.

Quote:
UFC 104: Lyoto Machida v Mauricio Rua. Machida won via Unanimous Decision. Winner should have been Rua.
UFC 112: BJ Penn v Frankie Edgar I. Edgar won via Unanimous Decision. winner should have been Penn.
WEC 48: Leonard Garcia v Chan Sung Jung. Garcia won via Split Decision. Jung should have won.
WEC 49: Jamie Varner v Kamal Shalorus. Bout was scored a draw. Varner should have won.
UFC 119: Sean Sherk v Evan Dunham. Sean Sherk won via Split Decision. Dunham should have won.
All these fights left a bitter taste in my mouth after they announced the decision and I thought each one was quite easy to score.

Quote:
UFC 86: Forrest Griffin v Quinton Jackson. Griffin won via Unanimous Decision. Should have been Draw or Jackson win.

WEC 43: Benson Henderson v Donald Cerrone I. Henderson won via Unanimous decision. Should have been Draw or Cerrone win.

UFC 105: Randy Couture v Brandon Vera. Couture won via Unanimous Decision. Should have been Draw or Vera win.

UFC 114: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira v Jason Brilz. Nogueira won via Split Decision. Should have been Draw or Brilz win.

Strikeforce Diaz v Noons II: Josh Thomson v Gesius Calvancante. Thomson won via Unanimous Decision. should have been Calvancante win or Draw
I didn't have a problem with Nog/Brilz, Jackson/Griffin or Thomson/JZ (except 30-27 was bogus) but Couture/Vera and Cerrone/Henderson were bouts I thought shoulda definetly went the other way when I watched them.
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Old 10-11-2010, 05:09 PM   #8 (permalink)
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using a computer to judge a fight is flawed in so many ways, no consideration is given to the impact each shot recorded has on the fight, effective damage, use of control and defence, judges are allowed to use there own decision when interpreting the value of a action just as a strike, sure they work within set guidelines but they are only guidelines not absolutes. Thats why a system like this will never be used to decide the outcome of a fight and to be honest if they where to use such a system I think fighters would learn ways to manipulate it which I have no doubt would create really static fights and style and the outcome would be nothing short of completely ruining the sport, luckily they will never turn to this option because it would suck way to badly.
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Old 10-11-2010, 05:51 PM   #9 (permalink)
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The actual stats are not done by a computer, if you look on the website it says they use video's of the fights and every striking exchange/takedown attempt etc is viewed in double slow mo, then all the stats are put in the computer and it generates the outcome using the formula. It could never be used in real life due to the time it takes to generate, it would take an hour etc to do. This is why i think the .5scoring system would be the best way to improve MMA judging. The FightMetric stats do however give a good hindsight view into how a fight went.
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Old 10-11-2010, 06:36 PM   #10 (permalink)
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i agree with fightmetric on every fight except Edgar/Penn 1.

i thought Frankie won 4 rounds.

oppps, i also thought Belcher beat Sexymama, he was landing the harder strikes and controlling the pace, esp late.
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