Touching of the belly usually happens when there's a significant baby bump. I was pregnant with my second daughter, in a roomful of women, not even realizing I was doing it, and someone goes "awwww....she's rubbing her belly" and I said, "Yes, yes I am, glad you like the unborn baby bump.......are there any cookies left?"
As far as, is she pregnant: OTC pregnancy tests are more accurate than ever as they pick up on smaller and smaller amounts of human chorionic gonadotropin than they used to. If she's serious about finding out, she should go and get a blood test at the doctor. Fast, easy, puts an end to the suspense.
I have been 2 and 3 weeks late very occasionally with no explanation, and wasn't pregnant. Sore boobs, feeling puky, being clumsy as hell (the dreaded butterfingers syndrome), constantly having to pee, the only emotional alteration I experienced was thrilled b/c we were trying to get pregnant both times and succeeded quickly due to constant practice.
Sig Credit to Toxic