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Aaronyman's UFC 92 Lockdown

2K views 27 replies 10 participants last post by  bbjd7 
#1 ·
[applause comes to a close]

Okay so as most of you know I'm coming off of that trainwreck of a night at the UFC Fight for the Troops...lets hope this one goes better...it's an interesting card for me, because none of my favourite fighters are participating...hopefully that will limit any bias that I normally don't have anyway :laugh:

here are the odds from BODOG

http://www.mmaunderdogs.com/bodog/

Quinton Jackson +105

IMO this is the best bet of the evening. The question you should be asking yourself when analyzing this fight is? Will Rampage get Wanderlei down at will? if yes, how will the fight play out with Rampage on top of Wanderlei?

Can Wanderlei get up? Can he submit Rampage? I would really doubt it...and it's going to be a painful reminder to Wanderlei fans when he loses a UD to Rampage.

Sorry folks, but Wanderlei is an eroded pebble in the stream. His striking is dangerous but not great, his wrestling is below average, and his bjj (even tho it's there on paper) doesn't really help him in fights...his athletic ability isn't what it used to be and he seems incapable of implementing any kind of gameplan to avoid being taken down...I mean, if when a past his prime Chuck Liddell can take you down without any trouble, that's really not good when fighting a guy like Rampage.

Don't get me wrong, I love Wanderlei and if I wasn't betting against him I would be rooting for him in this fight, but his time has come.

Pat Barry -240


I was pretty surprised when I saw this betting line at how generous it was being towards Evenson...the guy is trash...complete trash and he's fighting a very good, very aggressive striker in Pat Barry...Evenson is a "Norwegian kickboxing champion" lol...sometimes i wonder if they just raffle those trophies off to people...Any fighter with a reasonable level of lateral movement will walk right past a guy Evenson's droggy strikes and punish him....and even tho Pat Barry is a lil undersized for the division, I don't see that being a problem in this fight with two HW strikers...one who is very good standing, the other is ...well pretty bad despite that being his only real weapons....the fact that Evenson is even in the UFC makes me wonder if they bring guys in just to make highlight reels out of...he's a pretty embarrassing professional athlete IMO

Pat Barry via whatever he wants standing

more analysis is coming
 
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#2 ·
Agree with your Berry pick but IMO no one should ever bet on a Wanderlei fight he has a take a punch land a punch style that really makes almost any fight a coin flip.

Now Rampage could take him down and control him. However they are going to have to stand at some points in the fights and I'm sure him and Wandy will throw heavy hands at each other.

I'm almost positive this will be a KO in round 2 I'm just not sure for who yet.
 
#4 ·
I think Rampage and his camp know that taking Wanderlei down is the path to least resistance...I mean, we all know it...even tho I think Rampage could beat Wanderlei standing at this point as well, it's a much smarter decision to take him to the mat....also, keep in mind this fight is in Las Vegas, so we're going to be getting our normal referee's....Mario, Steve, Herb...these guys do not stand up fights often...only if it's alot of inactivity...and I don't forsee Rampage taking it easy on Wanderlei when it hits the ground...I see him throwing down

Btw, Evensen was to compete in hammer - throwing in the Olympics a couple years ago, and he's a national junior master in judo - so he has some ground skills.
that's interesting....the only critique I'd say is that in a country with less than 5 million people, the whole "olympic athlete" does hold as much weight...not to mention, hammer has alot to do w/ raw power and less to do with applicable fighting abilities

thanks for the point about his judo..i did not know that...i thought Rogan said he was a blue belt in bjj which isn't much at this level of the game....i'd think that if he wanted to showcase that, he would have done so against Kongo, who isn't a particularly proficient ground fighter...

I have a feeling this fight will be shown at some point in the ppv....and it will be really fun
 
#3 ·
Dude! Have some respect, he's a Norwegian, not a retarded swede! ;-p.

I happen to be Norwegian myself, Dana should get his hands on Joachim Hansen asap!


Btw, Evensen was to compete in hammer - throwing in the Olympics a couple years ago, and he's a national junior master in judo - so he has some ground skills.
 
#8 ·
Aaronyman, for once I gotta call you out on your picks, I mean how can you call a guy who just switched camps following a mental breakdown a lockdown? Hell even if you thought when Rampage was champ he could beat Wandy there has to be some question now.
 
#10 ·
Its obviously not a lockdown lol.

But, if you think rampage is at least 50/50 to take this fight, its a profitable bet in the long run... and thats all that matters.. even if its only +0.05 equity. I got my money in on rampage at +110, and I feel he is going to take it this time, so I am very happy win or lose.

Regarding the Pat Barry pick.. you can get Pat at -215 on sportsbook.com

P.S. What bets did you make so far Aaron? Doing any parlays or just straight bets?

I bet on Rashad @ +115 (I think it was +115.. too lazy to check)
Rampage @ +110
and CB @ -145
 
#11 ·
Well diffrent opinions then bail3yz when the odds are pretty even and I put the fight at 50/50 thats a bet I wont touch, I bet when I think there is an underdog who is a substantial favorite IMO.
 
#12 ·
Understandable, most people are like that. I have a large bankroll, so I can withstand the swings by betting on small equity situations, and since there arent that many BIG equity situations (ie efrain vs nover) I take any equity I can get.. profit is profit :) just need a large bankroll. Also you have to have the right mindset, and not worry about losing.
 
#13 ·
lol yeh the 'lockdown' title is more of catchphrase to make it sound cool...it's mma, you can't 'lock' anything

i personally don't see the rampage fight 50/50 and I think after the fight alot of people will regret predicting it being that close...I see Rampage beating Wanderlei and looking dominant while doing so

P.S. What bets did you make so far Aaron? Doing any parlays or just straight bets?

I bet on Rashad @ +115 (I think it was +115.. too lazy to check)
Rampage @ +110
and CB @ -145
I don't have any hard cash on Pat Barry at all ATM...I'm at home in the boondocks and have dialup and haven't got the chance to make any more bets...

I wanted to wait and see how Frank Mir looked at the weighin...I doubt I'll be taking him, but if he looks in the best shape of his life, I'll toss a value bet down on him...

at this point I have Rampage and Rashad combo'd...I got Rashad at +115 and Rampage sadly at -110....I anticipated Rampage losing value, which didn't happen..
 
#14 ·
lol yeh the 'lockdown' title is more of catchphrase to make it sound cool...it's mma, you can't 'lock' anything

i personally don't see the rampage fight 50/50 and I think after the fight alot of people will regret predicting it being that close...I see Rampage beating Wanderlei and looking dominant while doing so



I don't have any hard cash on Pat Barry at all ATM...I'm at home in the boondocks and have dialup and haven't got the chance to make any more bets...

I wanted to wait and see how Frank Mir looked at the weighin...I doubt I'll be taking him, but if he looks in the best shape of his life, I'll toss a value bet down on him...

at this point I have Rampage and Rashad combo'd...I got Rashad at +115 and Rampage sadly at -110....I anticipated Rampage losing value, which didn't happen..
Ya, I agree I see rampage winning this fight np too.. so I have him at a much bigger favorite then 50/50.. but I was just saying for the people that think its 50/50.. betting on the underdog is still profitable in that case
 
#15 ·
Ive never heard of a fighter getting KO'd by the same fighter twice then beating him in the 3rd meeting. Say what you want but I truly believe Rampage is afraid of Wanderlei. Once he starts to get hit and Wand gets that clinch, he is going to wilt.
 
#16 ·
Eh, just because we've never seen it before doesn't mean it can't happen. Steve Cantwell got KTFO by Brian Stann, then returned the favor in the rematch because he adjusted his striking and gameplan. Slight variations in Rampage's skillset over the last four years makes this match-up harder to predict.
 
#19 ·
Honestly Wanderlei is Wanderlei he showed us everything he is against Jardine even though it was only 40 seconds.

Now If Rampage can take him down quickly in every round this is a smart bet however that's not a gurantee something being overlooked is Wandy has better training partners now then before (I almost cried while typing that). At Chute Boxe he trained with a bunch of guys who fought the same way and I love Chute Boxe but basically they all have the same style.

At Xtreme Couture and his own gym he trains with excellent BJJ guys very good strikers and most importantly strong wrestlers.


I think this fight is a coin flip because standing Wandy is a wild guy who can get dropped as often as he drops his opponents I mean he has been rocked by some horrible fighters.

But I think putting money on Rampage isn't a good idea because this fight is too hard to call.

BTW bail3yz I'm gonna tell you what I told Aarony before UFC 16 don't bet against Jersey it doesn't turn out well.
 
#21 ·
Results:

I won a fair bit of cash...i had 10 bucks on a rampage/rashad/mir combo ...i believe that will pay around 120 bones....not bad considering i only bet 15 dollars on this event

evenson sucks worse than i thought

rashad's gnp is brutal...good showing by forrest tho

rampage just signed wanderlei's retirement papers...i'm not a modest guy so to everyone on this forum who posted "wanderlei via KNEEZZZ!"....YOU GOT OWNED..he isn't the same fighter he was back in Pride and now you know
 
#24 ·
Well the Wandy fight was exactly how I though I has Wandy. Wandy took one to land one and he went down since Rampage blocked a punch something Wandy doesn't know how to do.

Any fight where Wandy doesn't go to the ground is 50/50 IMO and this time Rampage nailed him.
 
#26 ·
I think he needs to take about half a year off build his gym and then drop to MW which would be easy.

Honestly his take one land one strategy wouldn't be quite as stupid if he wasn't fighting guys who walk around 20 lbs more then him.
 
#27 ·
wanderlei vs. gsp at 185 anyone? anyone?

he's too beaten down to learn new tricks...i mean, we here about how he has been working w/ new thai coaches and ernesto hoost and then he goes out there and throws crazy loopers time and time again....

he'd get eaten alive at 185 too unfortunately....slap his name on a few more ppv's to get use his name to hype up some guys and after he loses to them, let him retire before he turns into a ken shamrock
 
#28 ·
I don't see him getting eaten alive at 185 at all. Anderson would destroy him but how many powerful strikers at 185 are there?

Off his back he does avoid damage and his TDD did look improved against Rampage.

Wandy at 185 if he can bring his power with him is scary.
 
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