Thread Tools

Display Modes

**shatterproof** · 11-07-2009, 06:08 AM

Appology accepted but that is odd... because you quoted me, and maybe i had more to drink tonight than i think but i didn't see Sicilian_Esq saying anything about getting 100 to 1 odds. Guess he deleted it? Heh.

Somehow i'm skeptical but if you've got what could only be described as one hell of an idiot for a bookie, c'est la vie...

**name goes here** · 11-07-2009, 07:48 AM

But essentially IMO betting on Rogers you are just betting on your ignorance - doesn't seem like a good plan. I mean I say Rogers has a 30% chance because we don't really know what his chances are, so it's nearly 50/50, but not quiet that good. The reality is with 10 such fights like this I don't know that 3 or 4 times the underdog would win. I just know that I wouldn't trust the favorite to win more than 7 or so times.

I guess what I'm saying I don't like betting on fights I can't predict. (Obv prediction being largely a guess anyway). Because then your just playing roulette.

Sicilian_Esq · 11-07-2009, 01:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alizio

sorry, i bet real $ not credits, i dont even know how to bet credits or why i would??

But yes, i dont think Rogers has a 2 in 10 chance to win and that would be just breaking even on the bet, he would actually have to win 3 in 10 to make it profitable. Like i said i dont know how credit betting works, perhaps yours is a very viable strategy, i dont think it is for betting real $ tho and i was referring to the person saying $5.

You don't bet it every time the odds are ridiculous, [i.e. Silva v. Leites], but Rogers has a "punchers chance," which translates much MUCH better than a submission chance.

And like Shatterproof said, it's a minimal bet. You don't bet the house on upset.

Also, @ Shatterproof: I just simplified the odds to 1/100. I put a few bucks on Rogers at +425, and the line is moving downward as we speak as more and more people are betting the same way I am.

**coldcall420** · 11-08-2009, 12:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calminian

...and I don't even think he's a top 5 HW. But he may have the heaviest hands in mma, and he's a terrible style matchup for the smaller Fedor that likes to stand and trade for good portions of his matches. Fedor's not the type of guy that's going to beat Rogers. Rogers will have problems with the large strong wrestlers, not the small quick striker/sub specialists.

My only hesitancy is him getting taken down and being clueless. On the feet, I think he's the better striker, and certainly has superior power. So I'm out on that limb. I think Mel is overrated and Grim underrated. I predict a lot of upset people Saturday night. Fedor action figures smashed, and jamies thrown away. Life size posters ripped off walls, and conspiracies multiplying about Dana's covert involvement.

Of course if I'm wrong, I'm sure several here will gently and respectfully lavish me with 'I told ya sos.'

Get it now!!!!

Intermission · 11-08-2009, 12:16 AM

Looks like someone was wrong..

hope rogers knows where he is by now haha

**khoveraki** · 11-08-2009, 12:16 AM

Let me be the first to say that

ROGERS GROUND GAME = IMPRESSIVE.

wow!!!

Also, I turned to my fiance and said "fedor will knock him out with a right hook in the next 2 seconds" 2 seconds before he did.

alizio · 11-08-2009, 12:17 AM

why all Fedor fans wanna say something negative to Rogers, he came out properly not giving too much respect so he can lose the fight before it starts, he put up a helluva fight and was argueably winning round 1 and he made Fedor look human for the 2nd fight in a row relying on the "punchers chance" that everybody said Rogers had to rely on.

**footodors** · 11-08-2009, 12:19 AM

dam!! fedor has bowling balls for hands.

**coldcall420** · 11-08-2009, 12:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alizio

why all Fedor fans wanna say something negative to Rogers, he came out properly not giving too much respect so he can lose the fight before it starts, he put up a helluva fight and was argueably winning round 1 and he made Fedor look human for the 2nd fight in a row relying on the "punchers chance" that everybody said Rogers had to rely on.

I'm simply addressing the person ho gives Fedor no credit for past wins and his legacy and finds ways to diminish the latest victories he has had......so what now???