I've just gotten really into MMA and since the begging I've liked mirko cro cop (I first saw him on kickboxing), GSP, and most of all anderson silva. I've only bet on two events (both of them twice), GSP-matt serra, and Diego Sanches-Josh whats-his-face. I lost both. I like sanches and GSP was suppose to kick ass. I always cover my ass by betting on the other guy (who is usuall a big under dog) and try to make it so I get a profit either way but I'm a little discouraged. GSP had one fluke submission loss to matt hughes and Matt Serra has only been KO'd by one miracle spinning backfist (his other 3 were decisions). I thought that almost all serra's fights go the distance and GSP is god so he has to win. sanches is undefeated but he only barely beat josh last time. Josh is ever improving (he's only lost once to drew ficket? and that was a fluke) and I thought to myself that he has gotten way better since the last time but I had to go with Diego.
What I'm trying to say is that when you sit back and look at the odds (3-1 for serra and 2-1 for josh kosh) you don't get the complete picture. serra is way better than anyone, including myself, gave him credit for, and Josh was at least as good as diego no matter how you slice it. those wheren't upsets, they were bad odds. I made mistakes by just looking at the odds (althogh I still covered my ass).
Now I sit here and look at this match. 3-1 against gonzaga. I will cover my ass just as last time by mainly betting on crocop but getting insurance by betting on gonzaga. Everyone has a punchers chance in mma but here is my breakdown. cro cop will destroy gonzaga in the standup. he doesn't need his A-game, he doesn't even need to be warmed up to beat gonza on his feet. on the ground Gonzaga will probably have more success though cro cop has a nice gaurd and take down defence. theres a punchers chance for gonzaga, and cro cop could even get lucky on the ground, but the skill difference is wild. cro cop wins standing up and gonzaga wins on the ground. even this is a lot closer than most people think. if the match ends in one minute into the first round because of a left kick to gonzagas head that doesn't mean cro cop is way better. he is good standing up and that's where all fights start. Cro Cop wins by TKO 4:34 into the first round.
Last edited by Kadeebe; 04-13-2007 at 01:51 AM.