Lutter has more of a chance than you guys think. If he doesn't want to trade punches he can let Silva chase him, perfect for the takedown. On the ground, although it's no gimme, I think he can pull it off. But if Silva lands a few punches on him first...well, he's in deep then.
Lutter stand a chance, but not a good one. Silva's takedown defence might not be great but he sure as hell as the speed and the accuracy to do a lot of damage and tire lutter out before any hypothetical takedown happens.
lutter is very good on the ground, so if he can get the takedown then he can win. 5/1 odds is better than it should be. i'll throw a bit on lutter just in case he pulls out the win, im rootin for silva though (the more exciting fighter)