This is a hard one to pick. AJ has not been in the cage in over a year and that always affects the fighter. When was the last time anyone won a fight after a layoff of more than a year? Anyone know?
On the the other hand, Cond showed that Hardy can be KOd and AJ is a much bigger, stronger fighter than Condit. AJ seems to be ready and focused; he shut everyone up by making weight! Shows how much we know about these guys when some of us were so damn confident he wouldn't make weight.
I'm going to drop 500 on Hardy for the hell of it since it's such a hard fight to predict.