Sure Sanchez had him in trouble near the end of the third round, but we all know who the better fighter is after that fight.
I think he would beat Story today.
I dont think he is the overwhelming #1 contender. I think one more fight would go a long way for him.
And by the way, his resume is more impressive tham Rory McDonalds whos biggest win is Nate Diaz and was stopped by Condit.
Are you sold on McDonald?
So I rewatched both the Rocha and Condit fights to see if I see something from Ellenberger that I missed. And I have to say I didn't see anything that changes my opinion on him. If anything I am less impressed with him because in both fights I thought he got away with point deducting shots, in the Rocha fight it looked like he landed a dozen shots to the back of the head including a nasty flurry that I'm shocked Kim Winslow didn't take a point away from him. In the Condit fight it looks like he got a knee to Condit's head in that first round. Also both of those fights Condit and Rocha had the officials intervening by checking if Rocha was holding his trunks and if Condit was hitting Jake in the back of the head. I think those delays in action really helped Ellenberger.
Ellenberger has strong hands and good a double leg shot, I don't know how effective that would be against a top level wrestler. He's got other some serious issues, Sanchez, Condit, and Rocha were all able to sweep him, he's very fast in the first round but he slows down rather quickly in subsequent rounds. His sub defense seems to be turttling up, and he seems to lack a decent guillotine or rear naked choke.
You bring Rory Macdonald and his resume, if I'm being critical of both fighters skill sets. Macdonald is the better fighter, he's bigger, stronger, I think he's only had one bad round in his career to Condit, and if the ref doesn't stop the fight Rory wins. Rory can also beat you in a number of different ways, I think he has better BJJ and the wrestling would be interesting.
Jake is more accomplished and he's the higher ranked fighter but Rory is the more complete fighter and I believe Macdonald would defeat Ellenberger if they fought. I would also take Nick Diaz over Ellenberger and Josh Koscheck. Martin Kampmann, Erick Silva, Jon Fitch, and Johnny Hendricks are all fights Ellenberger could win, but he could also lose those as well.
I'm going to predict that Ellenberger loses one of his next two fights.