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Old 05-19-2012, 09:20 AM   #1 (permalink)
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UPCOMING FIGHTS that you would happily put $1000 on?

what in your opinion, are the most certain outcome fights, we are about to see?

i got ...

mendes v mckenzie (with a small sub cover)

jones v hendo

belfort v wandy.

struve v lavar, not to go the distance.

dont worry if you dont have a 1000. its just for fun.

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Old 05-19-2012, 09:27 AM   #2 (permalink)
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what kind of odds do you think you can get for McKenzie via Sub (Guillotine)?
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Old 05-19-2012, 09:32 AM   #3 (permalink)
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JDS over Mir... Mir looked dreadful against Nogueira up untill it hit the mat. Mir doesn't have the takedowns to get it to the mad, he's gonna getdestroyed.

Hyun-Kim v Maia to go to a decision. Hyun-Kim has won his last 5 by decision, and Maia's last 7 fights have gone to the judges. Both guys are grapplers who seem to have found a new love in stand-up, and neither have the power to finish.

Jimmo to beat Perosh. Jimmo is a beast at LHW, even if he's not the most interesting fighter. Perosh is about 40, looked totally average in each of his last 3 wins, and now he's not fighting some regional LHW he'll get smashed.

Phil Davis to beat Chad Griggs. This is gonna go exactly how the Lashley-Griggs fight went except Davis won't get tired. Griggs is a gamer, but he's a very average fighter whereas Davis is a monster.
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Old 05-19-2012, 09:40 AM   #4 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chileandude View Post
what kind of odds do you think you can get for McKenzie via Sub (Guillotine)?
pretty good as a cover. he is going to lose so itl be still quite good value and you can always mix with a few certs in the future if you feel the need.

seems like one of those props that will be boosted for idiots who think its going to happen. but considering its the only dark horse in that fight, outside of a striking distance game...its a decent cover.
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Old 05-19-2012, 09:47 AM   #5 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by lolwut View Post
pretty good as a cover. he is going to lose so itl be still quite good value and you can always mix with a few certs in the future if you feel the need.

seems like one of those props that will be boosted for idiots who think its going to happen. but considering its the only dark horse in that fight, outside of a striking distance game...its a decent cover.
It is, but do they give better odds for a specific sub? I'm not much of a betting man.
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Old 05-19-2012, 09:53 AM   #6 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chileandude View Post
It is, but do they give better odds for a specific sub? I'm not much of a betting man.
if you find a good site then im pretty sure you can get props on most of the main card. i tend to avoid method of vic bets unless its really big fights. i do like the "not to go the distance one" tho. mma isnt unpredictable. it is unreliable though. but if you look at the stats for lavar v struve, lavar is a big hitter and struve has gone the distance once in his whole career iirc.

if youre a newbie then just have a bit of fun with it. make your parlays around 3 and cover yourself well so you dont lose too much if it goes pear shaped. there are no certs in mma. plenty of times the biggest underdog wins. mix a close fight you feel strongly about with a few no brainers. try not to put too many fights on the parlay unless you are dropping a small hail mary, and try not to put three close ones (-/+100's) together unless you are sure. even two is realistically stretching it, unless you are really confident you will get it right. have fun. likewise, if you are sure about two close ones, then be careful about the lock. it might seem certain, but you could screw up a good parlay by dropping a false lock, that had little to no value in the first place. its better to split the thing and drop two. one of them will always win and two probably will.

have fun

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Old 05-19-2012, 10:53 AM   #7 (permalink)
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Jones/Hendo (Jones winning).
Belfort/Silva (Belfort winning).
Machida/Bader (Machida winning).
JDS/Mir (JDS winning, knock out).
Silva/Brenneman (Silva winning).
Aldo/Koch (Aldo winning, brutally).

Probably more but I can't think at the moment. Not so sure about the Machida one, but i'll always support machida! :P In all reality i'd never have the balls to put a grand on any of these though .
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Old 05-19-2012, 12:08 PM   #8 (permalink)
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JDS vs. Mir is a total lock. I havent even checked the odds yet. Anyone know them off hand?
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Old 05-19-2012, 12:20 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lolwut View Post
what in your opinion, are the most certain outcome fights, we are about to see?

i got ...

mendes v mckenzie (with a small sub cover)

jones v hendo

belfort v wandy.

struve v lavar, not to go the distance.

dont worry if you dont have a 1000. its just for fun.
The next ten easiest calls I see, with winners first.

JDS/Mir
Barboza/Varner
Brookins/Oliviera
Hioki/Lamas
Nijem/Keith
Miller/Funch
Pearson/Swanson
Ebersole/Waldburger
Stout/Fisher
Belfort/Wanderlei
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Old 05-19-2012, 12:56 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John8204 View Post
The next ten easiest calls I see, with winners first.

JDS/Mir
Barboza/Varner
Brookins/Oliviera
Hioki/Lamas
Nijem/Keith
Miller/Funch
Pearson/Swanson
Ebersole/Waldburger
Stout/Fisher
Belfort/Wanderlei
This is a similar list to what I was thinking as well. Only I would not include the Brookins fight or the Stout fight. Oliviera has some slick subs and might be able to catch Brookins and Fisher has already beat Stout once and fought a very close fight before that.

I would also add

Hettes/Siler
Story/Attonito
Davis/Griggs
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