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Old 09-10-2012, 05:36 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Why GSP would dominate Silva

This is just my layman analysis. Feel free to pick it apart.

I think Silva is making a huge mistake calling out GSP. I do think the two will eventually fight at a catchweight, and that's where the mistake lies.

Silva shines where he has a speed advantage. Just look at his 2 LHW fights against Griffin and Irvin. These guys hadn't seen that kind of speed in their careers. As a result they were beaten badly.

But would that be the case for GSP? Not at all. WW strikers are faster, and it's not going be an issue for GSP. One of the reasons Sonnen had success against Anderson is because he has good boxing skills and was able to deal with Anderson's biggest asset. Granted his spinning backfist needs a little work, but you get the point. GSP is not going to be overwhelmed by Anderson's speed. Look at all the strikers he's outclassed on the feet.

Now one would expect that when a bigger fighter comes down he'll have a strength advantage which would translate to a ground advantage. But that's never been Anderson's strong suit. Now add to this that GSP has the best TD in MMA, and a very good top game, and you have decided advantage. GSP could potentially wear down Anderson in the clinch and on the ground in more impressive fashion than with many WWs. Silva is strong off his back, but GSP is not going to get caught in his triangle, in fact his guard pass may be the best in MMA also. Anderson may get up from time to time, but GSP will take him back down.

Anderson's only hope is to keep the bout standing and to completely outclass GSP on the feet. I think this is a very unlikely scenario.

IMO, at a catchweight bout, I have GSP grinding out a UD, 50-45. I would also say there's a possibility for a late round GnP stoppage.
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Old 09-10-2012, 05:43 PM   #2 (permalink)
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The whole thing is, No matter if gsp can take silva down at will, every round starts standing. The chances of gsp finishing silva... very slim, so it would be safe to say Silva has at the very least, the beginning of each round to knock out GSP. You can not say thats not possible.
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Old 09-10-2012, 05:46 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Old 09-10-2012, 05:49 PM   #4 (permalink)
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I wish this were true, nobody would like it to be true more than me, but I still think this is a very tough matchup for GSP.

Obviously he has ways to win, but bottom line, in that fight, size will matter. If the skill is equal, or close to equal, size really matters, and no matter what weight they fight at, if they fight, Silva is significantly bigger, minimum 10-15 pounds, probably more like 20.

GSP can outwrestle Silva, obviously he can, but he has to get Silva down to do that, and has to do it without getting hammered. I love me my GSP, but thats a tall order against a guy with Silva's reach and size.

And the fact GSP is a such a good striker in some ways might make it harder for him. I don't agree that Sonnen's boxing is that good at all, I think Sonnen just had some success because he was fearless and caught Silva off guard. Well, Silva sure as hell won't underestimate GSP that way.

If Silva is careful and uses his reach, I think he can make life awfully hard for GSP. GSP has awesome speed and power, he could get Silva down and keep him there, but if I have to bet on someone, I'm still betting on Silva, and thats coming from a huge GSP nuthugger.
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Old 09-10-2012, 06:08 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Who knows what would happen. I think GSp could take him down eventually but the thing with him is his not going to the takedown right off the bat as Sonnen did, he'd mix it up with strikes and takedowns. In other words he'd be striking with Anderson.

I guess we'd have to witness it ourselves to really paint the picture.
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Old 09-10-2012, 06:15 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Finnsidious View Post
I wish this were true, nobody would like it to be true more than me, but I still think this is a very tough matchup for GSP.

Obviously he has ways to win, but bottom line, in that fight, size will matter. If the skill is equal, or close to equal, size really matters, and no matter what weight they fight at, if they fight, Silva is significantly bigger, minimum 10-15 pounds, probably more like 20.

GSP can outwrestle Silva, obviously he can, but he has to get Silva down to do that, and has to do it without getting hammered. I love me my GSP, but thats a tall order against a guy with Silva's reach and size.

And the fact GSP is a such a good striker in some ways might make it harder for him. I don't agree that Sonnen's boxing is that good at all, I think Sonnen just had some success because he was fearless and caught Silva off guard. Well, Silva sure as hell won't underestimate GSP that way.

If Silva is careful and uses his reach, I think he can make life awfully hard for GSP. GSP has awesome speed and power, he could get Silva down and keep him there, but if I have to bet on someone, I'm still betting on Silva, and thats coming from a huge GSP nuthugger.
Seems you really put a lot of stock in Anderson's TDD. I don't think his TDD is terrible, but he certainly is not great at it. When you combine that with GSP having the most explosive and successful TD in MMA, I think that's going to be a decided advantage. And we're not just talking about shooting from the outside. GSP is a genius at all kinds of takedowns, and think he's going to be as strong as anyone Silva has faced.

I used be favor Andy in this matchup, but I've evolved over to GSP on this one. I still see both of them with their advantages, but I think GSP will be able to defend the striking game much better than Anderson will be able to defend the ground game. He's used to lighter quicker fighters. And Sonnen took down Anderson at will for 6 straight rounds. He never took any significant damage on the feet. NEVER! And Sonnen is very one dimensional on his feet, and even his takedowns were pretty one dimensional.

GSP has been evolving on the feet and will face a very good standup fighter in Condit in his next fight. If he handles that fight well, coming off his injury, I think he'll be ready to jump over and fight Anderson. That's how I see it. I think the stars are lined up for him on this one.

Last edited by Calminian : 09-10-2012 at 06:22 PM.
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Old 09-10-2012, 06:17 PM   #7 (permalink)
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I'd pick Silva to end it within two.
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Old 09-10-2012, 06:19 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Calminian View Post
Seems you really put a lot of stock in Anderson's TDD. I don't think his TDD is terrible, but he certainly is not great at it. When you combine that with GSP having the most explosive and successful TD in MMA, I think that's going to be a decided advantage.

I used be favor Andy in this matchup, but I've evolved over to GSP on this one. I still see both of them with their advantages, but I think GSP will be able to defend the striking game much better than Anderson will be able to defend the ground game. Sonnen took down Anderson at will for 6 straight rounds. He never took any significant damage on the feet. NEVER! And Sonnen is very one dimensional on his feet.

GSP has been evolving on the feet and will face a very good standup fighter in Condit in his next fight. If he handles that fight well, coming off is injury, I think he'll be ready to jump over and fight Anderson. That's how I see it.
Think you need to rewatch the first fight bro. Silva does hurt him. And in one of sonnens "troll button - off" interviews he admits silva hurt him
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Old 09-10-2012, 06:21 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Win lose or drew, he won't dominate Silva.
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Old 09-10-2012, 06:34 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Think you need to rewatch the first fight bro. Silva does hurt him. And in one of sonnens "troll button - off" interviews he admits silva hurt him
Well, Sonne said the knee on the ground hurt him. If you remember, he did that funky spinning backfist ended him up on the ground where Anderson capitalized. And of course in the first fight Anderson submitted him off his back.

Sonnen, who in my opinion is a very one dimensional striker, was never in grave danger on the feet with Anderson. I'm just of the opinion that GSP is much better on the feet, and even better on the ground. I think he's faster and a better wrestler. I think he's more diverse and a better gameplanner. I just think Anderson may be walking into this not realizing what he's getting himself into.
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