I have never understood why people have thought Carwin was ever a top HW. Now that he is coming off a long layoff, has chronic back problems, isn't a young guy....he will be even more average.
Carwin hits hard. But he is slow as death. He has cardio for a half of a round. His wrestling isn't that good because his shot is as slow as a sloth. His BJJ is terrible.
He can certainly connect a good shot and put pretty much anyone out. But Roy could put him out as well. He could also out last Carwin if he makes it out of round 1. If Carwin is throwing any combo of punches in the 1st he will be tired by the 2nd.
I got Nelson because he has more ways to win. But it should be a slobberknocker.