I'm sure Miocic is familiar enough to the betting fan. And I don't know how they come up with opening lines, but I could think of several purely mathematical methods. use a weighted average of the lines they each got in their previous fights, for example. It's immaterial, the point being that at this time, the line is merely reflecting the betting numbers, not the bookie's opinions.
I don't agree with this. I'm not a betting guru. But I have bet the sport for a couple years now.
They can't use any sort of past fight lines to determine the new line, well they can't mathamatically use it. WHat would a line vs. Oli Thompson have to do with a line vs. say Roy Nelson?
I believe they open the lines purely on what they think the line should be, with slight factors in fan favorites and guys who the general public doesn't like. This can be seen in the Bisping/Stann line. Bisping was getting dawged by oddsmakers and should have been a higher favorite. But the general public likes to bet against him. So Stann wasn't as much of a dog as he should of been.
I do agree that lines change based on money coming in. But not usually a whole bunch. That is why they are linemakers, they understand odds.
Miocic is a 2-1 favorite for a reason. Oddsmakers believed he should be heavily favored with how they opened him. And the general public will still bett Miocic. Regaurdless of how they create the lines, the odds are generally very good. A 2-1 favorite is that for a reason.
And I don't think Miocic is nearly as popular with fans and gamblers alike. Struve has been in wars, in with guys like JDS, Nelson, Pat Barry. He has many more UFC fights. He is almost 7 feet tall. People know who Struve is. People couldn't pick Miocic out of a crowd. He hasn't been in any big matchups and has a short UFC career.