***OFFICIAL*** Stefan Struve vs. Stipe Miocic Thread - Page 3 - MMA Forum - UFC Forums - UFC Results - MMA Videos
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View Poll Results: Your prediction
Stefan Struve 21 63.64%
Stipe Miocic 12 36.36%
Draw 0 0%
Voters: 33. You may not vote on this poll

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post #21 of 96 (permalink) Old 09-26-2012, 01:04 PM
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Originally Posted by jonnyg4508 View Post
The books have lost their mind as well since Miocic is a 2-1 favorite. And even opened up as a bigger favorite.

The difference in this fight is speed and reaction. Struve seems to have a slow lazy looking striking game. Awesome reach, range, and height. But he doesn't use it that well. Miocic has a boxing background and his hands are pretty decent. Plus his chin is very solid. If Struve can't get the wrestler down, he will have 5 rounds to not get KO'd. I see Miocic finding his chin and dropping him before Struve is able to hurt Miocic too bad. If the fight goes to the ground it is a different story. But I feel Miocic will only let it go there is he is desperate.

On the other hand I always back Struve for his youth. He is still quite young and could be totally improved camp to camp. But his size really limits his striking. It is hard to be quick and react when you have so much mass to move.
I may be completely wrong about this, but if I understand the process correctly the Bookies give odds based on the wagers they've accumulated, not any kind of opinion they might have.

They calculate the odds so that regardless of who wins, the total amount lost by the people who placed the wrong bet is a little higher than the total amount won by the rest.

It's basically crowdsourcing an analysis. The favourite usually wins because this sort of crowdsourcing is usually reliable (more often than not the audience will get the correct answer when used as a lifeline on "who wants to be a millionaire" for example.)

It just so happens that Struve has accumulated a few highlight reel KOs that colour people's opinion of him. I don't think many people remember Browne being dominated, for example, they just remember the superman punch and Struve toppling like a beanpole.
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post #22 of 96 (permalink) Old 09-26-2012, 02:20 PM
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post #23 of 96 (permalink) Old 09-26-2012, 04:59 PM
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Originally Posted by Sports_Nerd View Post
I may be completely wrong about this, but if I understand the process correctly the Bookies give odds based on the wagers they've accumulated, not any kind of opinion they might have.

They calculate the odds so that regardless of who wins, the total amount lost by the people who placed the wrong bet is a little higher than the total amount won by the rest.

It's basically crowdsourcing an analysis. The favourite usually wins because this sort of crowdsourcing is usually reliable (more often than not the audience will get the correct answer when used as a lifeline on "who wants to be a millionaire" for example.)

It just so happens that Struve has accumulated a few highlight reel KOs that colour people's opinion of him. I don't think many people remember Browne being dominated, for example, they just remember the superman punch and Struve toppling like a beanpole.
The odds have to start somewhere. How do you suppose they come up with opening lines if it was ALL based on money that comes in?

Money has come in on Struve that is why he is less of a dog than he started. Reguardless he started at a 2.5 to 1 dog. And now is basically a 2-1 dog.

Also Struve is a much more known fighter than Miocic. Casual fans recognize him way more than Miocic. If this recognition was even Miocic may have opened at an even bigger favorite.

Last edited by jonnyg4508; 09-26-2012 at 05:04 PM.
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post #24 of 96 (permalink) Old 09-26-2012, 06:05 PM
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post #25 of 96 (permalink) Old 09-27-2012, 04:00 PM
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Normally I would agree with you because he does fight stupid, thing is I don't see any possible way that Miocic has an advantage. Every way I look at it the fight ends with Struve's hand raised. I think he is the better striker and the better grappler. Struve is horrible at using his reach but I still think his advantages here are to big here for him to lose.
What did I miss? every time I see Struve his striking is awful, meanwhile I think Stipes boxing is pretty legit.
Am I not remembering some fight where Struve could actually strike?

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post #26 of 96 (permalink) Old 09-27-2012, 04:16 PM
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What did I miss? every time I see Struve his striking is awful, meanwhile I think Stipes boxing is pretty legit.
Am I not remembering some fight where Struve could actually strike?
His loss to Browne.
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post #27 of 96 (permalink) Old 09-27-2012, 04:22 PM
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Originally Posted by jonnyg4508 View Post
The odds have to start somewhere. How do you suppose they come up with opening lines if it was ALL based on money that comes in?

Money has come in on Struve that is why he is less of a dog than he started. Reguardless he started at a 2.5 to 1 dog. And now is basically a 2-1 dog.

Also Struve is a much more known fighter than Miocic. Casual fans recognize him way more than Miocic. If this recognition was even Miocic may have opened at an even bigger favorite.
I'm sure Miocic is familiar enough to the betting fan. And I don't know how they come up with opening lines, but I could think of several purely mathematical methods. use a weighted average of the lines they each got in their previous fights, for example. It's immaterial, the point being that at this time, the line is merely reflecting the betting numbers, not the bookie's opinions.
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post #28 of 96 (permalink) Old 09-27-2012, 04:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Sports_Nerd View Post
I'm sure Miocic is familiar enough to the betting fan. And I don't know how they come up with opening lines, but I could think of several purely mathematical methods. use a weighted average of the lines they each got in their previous fights, for example. It's immaterial, the point being that at this time, the line is merely reflecting the betting numbers, not the bookie's opinions.
I don't agree with this. I'm not a betting guru. But I have bet the sport for a couple years now.

They can't use any sort of past fight lines to determine the new line, well they can't mathamatically use it. WHat would a line vs. Oli Thompson have to do with a line vs. say Roy Nelson?

I believe they open the lines purely on what they think the line should be, with slight factors in fan favorites and guys who the general public doesn't like. This can be seen in the Bisping/Stann line. Bisping was getting dawged by oddsmakers and should have been a higher favorite. But the general public likes to bet against him. So Stann wasn't as much of a dog as he should of been.

I do agree that lines change based on money coming in. But not usually a whole bunch. That is why they are linemakers, they understand odds.

Miocic is a 2-1 favorite for a reason. Oddsmakers believed he should be heavily favored with how they opened him. And the general public will still bett Miocic. Regaurdless of how they create the lines, the odds are generally very good. A 2-1 favorite is that for a reason.

And I don't think Miocic is nearly as popular with fans and gamblers alike. Struve has been in wars, in with guys like JDS, Nelson, Pat Barry. He has many more UFC fights. He is almost 7 feet tall. People know who Struve is. People couldn't pick Miocic out of a crowd. He hasn't been in any big matchups and has a short UFC career.
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post #29 of 96 (permalink) Old 09-28-2012, 12:46 PM
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Don't trust Struve's chin but I've never seen Stipe in trouble on the ground.

I'll go with Stipe by brutal stoppage though, since Struve usually goes in amazing fashion.

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post #30 of 96 (permalink) Old 09-28-2012, 04:15 PM
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This one will show how good Stipe is. I wote for him, TKO 2cnd round.. If he is good as i think..
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