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Old 10-29-2012, 05:27 PM   #21 (permalink)
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I think Carwin's a very good fighter, just not better than the top 3. He has awsome wrestling, powerful hands, good gnp. Saying he isn't a good fighter is ridiculous, he's a top 10 hw in the UFC.

And I know how Cain fights, but tenacity doesn't win fights if your opponent has a counter for every strategy you can throw at him it's hard to win. You are obviously high on Cain, I just don't see him getting Junior down. Take this into consideration: over his career GSP has 86% successful TDD, Liddell 81%, JDS has 88%.

http://hosteddb.fightmetric.com/fighters/details/439
http://hosteddb.fightmetric.com/fighters/details/113
http://hosteddb.fightmetric.com/fighters/details/535

Last edited by rabakill : 10-29-2012 at 05:29 PM.
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Old 10-29-2012, 05:30 PM   #22 (permalink)
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I give Cain roughly 3 minutes to gain top position before JDS Really starts hurting him.

If anyone can do it it's Cain, but I think JDS is just too good. His movement, his balance, and his scrambling are all top notch, and not just for a heavyweight.

And Cain didn't really go after Silva either at the start of the fight. Silva threw the slowest leg kick ever and Cain capitalized on it.
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Old 10-29-2012, 05:39 PM   #23 (permalink)
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Pretty stupid argument, if you have a rational rebuttal I'm open to it. Logically I just don't see what Cain can possibly do:

Take him down: couldn't do it against a wounded Junior
Knock him out: Carwin couldn't hurt him, Cain has much less power
what's he going to do? Please, explain
Cain has less punching power than Carwin? What are you basing that on?

The only real(ish) metric I can think of is that punching power meter thingie from that TV show wherein Cain punched harder than anyone tested... ever.
Can't remember what show that was, I'm afraid.

The only other reasonable back-up would be KO stats, I suppose. And they don't support your position.

Cain got caught with a great punch. He also got caught on/behind the ear.
It's reasonable to have doubts that Junior will be able to land that exact punch in that exact location again, so it's reasonable to think that Cain stands more than "no chance at all" in the re-match.

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Old 10-29-2012, 05:41 PM   #24 (permalink)
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I base Junior saying Carwin hits the hardest by the fact that Junior stated it specifically. Furthermore, Cain lands an average 6.61 takedowns per 15 minutes at 71% accuracy. Meaning he tries (6.61/3)(1/.71) (or about 3.1) takedowns per round.

Junior stops 88 percent of those meaning Cain will statistically average .372 takedowns per round against Junior. Not that great, in a 5 round fight Cain will statistically get 2 takedowns against Junior assuming you round up. If you think he's going to pull it off that's fine, just not likely.

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Old 10-29-2012, 05:52 PM   #25 (permalink)
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I base Junior saying Carwin hits the hardest by the fact that Junior stated it specifically. Furthermore, Cain lands an average 6.61 takedowns per 15 minutes at 71% accuracy. Meaning he tries (6.61/3)(1/.71) (or about 3.1) takedowns per round.

Junior stops 88 percent of those meaning Cain will statistically average .372 takedowns per round against Junior. Not that great, in a 5 round fight Cain will statistically get 2 takedowns against Junior assuming you round up. If you think he's going to pull it off that's fine, just not likely.
That's just advanced MMAth. The only wrestler JDS has faced who's even close to Cain's level, is Cain. And that was a weird fight in which both guys weren't 100% and Cain was coming off a layoff.

Any discussion of Cain's punching power vs Carwin's is moot. If Cain can't get dominant position JDS will finish him. If he Can, it will then go very badly for JDS.
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Old 10-29-2012, 06:08 PM   #26 (permalink)
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You can't relentlessly attack JDS, he's a great counter puncher. Cain's strategy last time was work leg kicks then go for takedown, it did not work. Take out the kicking bit and his takedowns will be even easier to defend, and he can't box with JDS...

Cain said he messed up on range and stayed too far away, he is mistaken, he was kept at range and worked out quickly.
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Old 10-29-2012, 06:57 PM   #27 (permalink)
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So pumped for this fight and so many great ones coming up! I think Junior will win but I think this'll be longer and a fun fight to watch.
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Old 10-29-2012, 07:49 PM   #28 (permalink)
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Cain has less punching power than Carwin? What are you basing that on?

The only real(ish) metric I can think of is that punching power meter thingie from that TV show wherein Cain punched harder than anyone tested... ever.
Can't remember what show that was, I'm afraid.

The only other reasonable back-up would be KO stats, I suppose. And they don't support your position.
It was Sports Science - a show notorious for extremely dodgy scientific studies. No one - and I mean no one - punches at 2700 psi. The fact that they said Cain did is retarded.

And the stats do support Carwin hitting harder than Cain. Cain only has 1 KO with the rest being GNP stoppages. Carwin has three pure KOs and 4 GNP stoppages. JDS freely says that Carwin hits harder than anyone else he has fought or sparred
with.
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Old 10-29-2012, 08:27 PM   #29 (permalink)
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That's just advanced MMAth. The only wrestler JDS has faced who's even close to Cain's level, is Cain. And that was a weird fight in which both guys weren't 100% and Cain was coming off a layoff.

Any discussion of Cain's punching power vs Carwin's is moot. If Cain can't get dominant position JDS will finish him. If he Can, it will then go very badly for JDS.
So now Carwin's wrestling means nothing, competing in the NCAA meant nothing I guess. Just love how you throw out all reason in the face of irrational fanboyism
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Old 10-29-2012, 08:38 PM   #30 (permalink)
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I love how some of you were able to determine that Cain was slow, sluggish, injured, and not his usual self during the 64 seconds of fighting we were privy to. Stop making excuses. Cain couldn't take JDS down. Junior found his range. And Cain went to sleep. 64 seconds leaves very little room for analysis and interpretation.

I'm not saying that the second fight won't go differently. I'd actually like to see a longer fight. But saying that Cain wasn't himself is a poor man's excuse.
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