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Old 11-08-2012, 02:30 PM   #31 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Canadian Psycho View Post
I'd laugh if Anderson Silva challenges GSP, GSP says, 'Cool story, bro', and exits the cage.

In reality, they've probably both been prepared for this. I'm certain that if GSP wins, this is to be the plan going forward, and has been for some time. I doubt Dana and the UFC would allow Anderson to enter the cage and challenge GSP without GSP being remotely aware or agreeable.
That would actually be hilarious. Especially with GSPS's robotic voice and accent, ha ha.
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Old 11-08-2012, 02:36 PM   #32 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by GrappleRetarded View Post
Luck isn't measured by how determined you are to make some thing happen, it's measured by how likely and how often you are able to do that one thing.

For example, I'm a terrible darts player. If I went into a darts game and my intention was to hit the bullseye with my first shot and I actually hit it, that would be considered an incredibly lucky shot. It doesn't matter if it was my intention to hit the bullseye and I hit it, what matters is the likely-hood of me hitting that bullseye consistently. The chances are very slim, because I'm rubbish.

Matt Serra KO'ing GSP could be considered an example of a lucky finish. Here's a guy with no proven real KO power who comes into the fight as a huge underdog and KO's George in the first round. Sure, he intended to KO George, but how often is he likely to pull that off? Not very likely at all.
Couldn't have said it better myself. Lucky KOs happen all the time. As other have said intention has very little to do with luck since you can intend to do something with extremely low probability and succeed.
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Old 11-08-2012, 02:43 PM   #33 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by GrappleRetarded View Post
Luck isn't measured by how determined you are to make some thing happen, it's measured by how likely and how often you are able to do that one thing.

For example, I'm a terrible darts player. If I went into a darts game and my intention was to hit the bullseye with my first shot and I actually hit it, that would be considered an incredibly lucky shot. It doesn't matter if it was my intention to hit the bullseye and I hit it, what matters is the likely-hood of me hitting that bullseye consistently. The chances are very slim, because I'm rubbish.

Matt Serra KO'ing GSP could be considered an example of a lucky finish. Here's a guy with no proven real KO power who comes into the fight as a huge underdog and KO's George in the first round. Sure, he intended to KO George, but how often is he likely to pull that off? Not very likely at all.
Very well put.
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Old 11-08-2012, 02:44 PM   #34 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Iuanes View Post
Yes and no. As mentioned before, having a shotgun or machine gun strategy of overwhelming an opponent isn't lucky if its done in the right way against the right opponent.

HOWEVER, simply having the intention of doing something and then doing it, doesn't mean it wasn't lucky, I can say, I intend to score a half court shot facing away from the basket and actually do it, but does it mean I wasn't lucky?

Intention has no inherent connection with luck.
Some things can't be compared like that.

How many Half Court shots are attempted in a game? How many punches to the chin are attempted in a fight?

When a guy is standing 3 feet from you and KO's you...it wasn't really luck. He is expecting to hit you in the chin. When an NBA player makes the only half court shot he attempts in a game all year...he is shocked it was sort of luck. Can the same average Joe make that shot at the same % as Lebron James? No. There is mass skill involved to get it there and on line.

There may be luck involved in a KO. But the vast majority is skill/intention. The luck is more in what your opponents defense is. You may throw a power shot, but if he defends like an idiot you were lucky he did.

Fighters practice punching fighters in the face every day for a majority of the day....whether it is GnP or striking.

Basketball players, while they do "practice" full court shots, it in no way compares to the practice MMA fighters put into punching and KOing their opponent.

So the 2 situations are really in no way comparable. Practice makes perfect they say. One is practiced on the daily. The other is fooled around with, not really stressed by coaches and trainers to bother practicing.
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Old 11-08-2012, 02:50 PM   #35 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GrappleRetarded View Post
Luck isn't measured by how determined you are to make some thing happen, it's measured by how likely and how often you are able to do that one thing.

For example, I'm a terrible darts player. If I went into a darts game and my intention was to hit the bullseye with my first shot and I actually hit it, that would be considered an incredibly lucky shot. It doesn't matter if it was my intention to hit the bullseye and I hit it, what matters is the likely-hood of me hitting that bullseye consistently. The chances are very slim, because I'm rubbish.

Matt Serra KO'ing GSP could be considered an example of a lucky finish. Here's a guy with no proven real KO power who comes into the fight as a huge underdog and KO's George in the first round. Sure, he intended to KO George, but how often is he likely to pull that off? Not very likely at all.
MMA is an unlikely sport. They are big well trained men who punch eachother with 4oz gloves. There is no exact science. Is Mir lucky to sub Nog because in most instances they would cancel eachother out? Or was he just better on that night and there was no luck involved?

It has something to do with practice. Does it not? I refuse to call something that men practice daily...as luck. It is their life. They drill it over and over and over again.

Matt Serra's finish is certainly more "lucky" than Anderson making Bonnar look foolish. But I wouldn't call it "luck". Silva is simply the better fighter and striker. Matt Serra wasn't trying to take GSP down that night. He was looking to catch him. And he did. he practiced how he would punch GSP in the face, GSP wilted, and he did it.

In a team match. Lets say basketball. The NBA. The Miami Heat should be way better than the Nets. They may be HUGE favorites. But if the Nets beat them that night is is considered "luck"? Why because they aren't the better team? They practice every day to outscore their opponents using offense and defense. It wouldn't be luck.

Fighters aren't machines. It isn't lotto tickets where there are so many winners on scratch offs. You have to factor in how good they fight on a particular night. A fighter may have a great night and his opponent may have fought no where near his capability. It is who brings it on a given night.

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Old 11-08-2012, 02:57 PM   #36 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by jonnyg4508 View Post
MMA is an unlikely sport. They are big well trained men who punch eachother with 4oz gloves. There is no exact science. Is Mir lucky to sub Nog because in most instances they would cancel eachother out? Or was he just better on that night and there was no luck involved?

It has something to do with practice. Does it not? I refuse to call something that men practice daily...as luck. It is their life. They drill it over and over and over again.

Matt Serra's finish is certainly more "lucky" than Anderson making Bonnar look foolish. But I wouldn't call it "luck". Silva is simply the better fighter and striker. Matt Serra wasn't trying to take GSP down that night. He was looking to catch him. And he did. he practiced how he would punch GSP in the face, GSP wilted, and he did it.

In a team match. Lets say basketball. The NBA. The Miami Heat should be way better than the Nets. They may be HUGE favorites. But if the Nets beat them that night is is considered "luck"? Why because they aren't the better team? They practice every day to outscore their opponents using offense and defense. It wouldn't be luck.
Yes MMA is a sport where "any thing can happen and any one can get knocked out" as they say, but just like any thing else in life, you can still measure luck in this sport and intention still hasn't got any thing to do with it.

Serra's finish was considered lucky for a number of reasons, and again, it doesn't matter if it was his intention to KO Georges'. I'm sure it was BJ's Alves', Koschecks etc intentions to KO Georges and I bet they practised for weeks on end too, but they couldn't do it.

Serra was never known for KO power leading up to the GSP fight, in fact he had zero KO's in his entire career before that GSP fight. Then you have to take into consideration how GSP has always been an impeccable defensive fighter. When you weigh every thing up, the chances of Serra KO'ing GSP like that are incredibly slim. Regardless of how badly he wanted to do it.

I agree that in this sport any thing can happen, but luck can still be measured, just to a lesser degree than in most other sports.

Last edited by GrappleRetarded : 11-08-2012 at 03:00 PM.
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Old 11-08-2012, 03:02 PM   #37 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by GrappleRetarded View Post
Luck isn't measured by how determined you are to make some thing happen, it's measured by how likely and how often you are able to do that one thing.
"it is measured by how likely and how often you are able to do that one thing"

Ok. Lets take "winning" as that one "thing".

By this logic (correct me if I am wrong) any underdog fighter. Or any fighter who wins at a less % than the opponent he is fighting....if he were to beat that guy who is "more likely...often wins" that means he is lucky?

I mean going by your words that would be the case. If a 7-7 fighter beats a 12-2 fighter it is automatically luck because he wins less often.
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Old 11-08-2012, 03:05 PM   #38 (permalink)
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Luck is not 'unlikeliness'. Luck is when you're doing nothing but still achieve. Just because something is unlikely doens't mean it's lucky if you're successful. Winning the lottery isn't lucky, it's basic maths. Winning the lottery without buying a ticket... that's lucky. Knocking somebody out after throwing your fist isn't lucky. Knocking somebody out with a tooth flying from your mouth that has been loosened by a kick from your opponent... that's lucky.
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Old 11-08-2012, 03:07 PM   #39 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by jonnyg4508 View Post
Some things can't be compared like that.

How many Half Court shots are attempted in a game? How many punches to the chin are attempted in a fight?

When a guy is standing 3 feet from you and KO's you...it wasn't really luck. He is expecting to hit you in the chin. When an NBA player makes the only half court shot he attempts in a game all year...he is shocked it was sort of luck. Can the same average Joe make that shot at the same % as Lebron James? No. There is mass skill involved to get it there and on line.

There may be luck involved in a KO. But the vast majority is skill/intention. The luck is more in what your opponents defense is. You may throw a power shot, but if he defends like an idiot you were lucky he did.

Fighters practice punching fighters in the face every day for a majority of the day....whether it is GnP or striking.

Basketball players, while they do "practice" full court shots, it in no way compares to the practice MMA fighters put into punching and KOing their opponent.

So the 2 situations are really in no way comparable. Practice makes perfect they say. One is practiced on the daily. The other is fooled around with, not really stressed by coaches and trainers to bother practicing.
I'm simply countering the point that simply because you intended to do something it means it wasn't lucky. Obviously a basketball shot isn't like an MMA fight but the principle remains across both actions.

Your'e basically saying that landing a KO punch is easier than a half court shot, which is irrelevant. I used the half-court shot analogy to make more lucid the fact that intention has nothing to do with luck inherently (though it is often necessary to intend something in order to make it happen).

Of course you train to throw punch and connect. But fighters also train not to be punched and to defend. Its about relative skill, not absolute skill. Its hard to make a half court shot, and its hard to KO someone better than you are.

The fact that it is supposedly easier to get a KO works against your argument as well, because it means it is also easy to be KOed, and thus not KO your opponent.

Just because you want, just because have trained to throw a punch, or trained to shoot a basketball, the chances are against you. If you happen to succeed, despite these chances being against you, we generally call that luck. The fact that you wanted to succeed, and in the moment wanted to do what you did, has no bearing on the fact that is was luck if looked at in isolation.

Essentially, can you say you would be able to pull that KO the majority of the time if you fight 10 times in the same conditions? If the answer is no, then its mostly luck.

Again, I'm just countering the argument that because intention is there, it isn't lucky. I'm not saying a KO against the odds is ENTIRELY lucky. A fighter needs to have skills, power, perserverence, endurance, or whatever other factors helping him, but this is all relative to his opponent.
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Old 11-08-2012, 03:09 PM   #40 (permalink)
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Luck or chance: is fortune (whether bad or good) which occurs beyond one's control, without regard to one's will, intention, or desired result.

I would say Serra had control of his punches. And it wasn't beyond his control.
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