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Old 11-08-2012, 04:12 PM   #41 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by jonnyg4508 View Post
"it is measured by how likely and how often you are able to do that one thing"

Ok. Lets take "winning" as that one "thing".

By this logic (correct me if I am wrong) any underdog fighter. Or any fighter who wins at a less % than the opponent he is fighting....if he were to beat that guy who is "more likely...often wins" that means he is lucky?

I mean going by your words that would be the case. If a 7-7 fighter beats a 12-2 fighter it is automatically luck because he wins less often.
You knew what I meant and you are just arguing semantics here. Everyone is familiar with the term "styles makes fights" in this sport and that's because it's true.

The luck I was referring to in this sport is measured by how likely Fighter A is to pull off that one method of victory in said fight.

In a purely hypothetical situation, let's say Dan Henderson fought GSP (lets say they were in the same weight class) and Hendo comes out and KO's GSP in the first round like Serra did. I wouldn't consider that a lucky shot like Serras for a number of reasons I said in my last post. Dan being notorious for his brutal over hand right, Serra having no KO's on his record etc.

As for your Mir/Nog scenario, I think that was a case of one fighter purely being better on that one night. Both of those guys are extremely high level submission artists and on that night, Mir managed to seize on the submission opportunity and pulled it off. So I wouldn't class it as lucky, simply because of how good Mir is with submissions. Now if Dave Herman the other week came out and submitted Nog, I'd label it as lucky.

I preserve luck in this sport for only the most extreme situations, such as - Serra/GSP, Chonan/Anderson Silva, Paulo Thiago/Koscheck etc etc.
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Old 11-08-2012, 04:19 PM   #42 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by GrappleRetarded View Post
You knew what I meant and you are just arguing semantics here. Everyone is familiar with the term "styles makes fights" in this sport and that's because it's true.

The luck I was referring to in this sport is measured by how likely Fighter A is to pull off that one method of victory in said fight.

In a purely hypothetical situation, let's say Dan Henderson fought GSP (lets say they were in the same weight class) and Hendo comes out and KO's GSP in the first round like Serra did. I wouldn't consider that a lucky shot like Serras for a number of reasons I said in my last post. Dan being notorious for his brutal over hand right, Serra having no KO's on his record etc.


As for your Mir/Nog scenario, I think that was a case of one fighter purely being better on that one night. Both of those guys are extremely high level submission artists and on that night, Mir managed to seize on the submission opportunity and pulled it off. So I wouldn't class it as lucky, simply because of how good Mir is with submissions. Now if Dave Herman the other week came out and submitted Nog, I'd label it as lucky.

I preserve luck in this sport for only the most extreme situations, such as - Serra/GSP, Chonan/Anderson Silva, Paulo Thiago/Koscheck etc etc.
If we are sitting here trying to define luck...then we should be able to apply it to everything. Using your words you said "it is measured by how likely and how often you are able to do that one thing". You used that notion to back your case. Why can't I use it to back mine? If what you said is what you meant, then a fighter with a smaller % of victory beating a fighter with a higher % (or probability) of victory...is luck...or lucky.

Bottom line is it is not. You know this and I know this. It isn't because 2 pro fighters are in there with tons of practice behind them. Some fighters have off nights. Some have good nights.

GSP may have had an off night. Matt Serra may be lucky to have caught GSP on his "off night" (again fighters aren't machines)...but taht actual punch and result wasn't luck.

With this logic...If GSP finishes anyone in the next 5 years, he will have been lucky. Because these days it is not probable. If he finished Condit it would be LUCK because Condit rarely gets finishes and GSP rarely finishes. Would this example be correct? Or do we want to cherry pick scenarios some more?

And I agree with your last point. I never said there was no ounce of luck in this. I said Luck in no way out-weighs skill in terms of a fighter KOing another. May be luck in the other defense and timing...but it was skill and practice to do it. Luck is few and far between in this sport.

I wouldn't agree with your Paulo Thiago example. Kos is far from an expert striker. Paulo throws heavy hands. Wasn't luck. It was Kos leaving himself wide open and not reacting. What if Paulo landed a jab on Kos? Is that luck? What does the power he have behind something have to do with luck? He threw the punch hard. It landed. It KO'd him.

Did he not mean to throw that punch hard or something??

Last edited by jonnyg4508 : 11-08-2012 at 04:25 PM.
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Old 11-08-2012, 04:25 PM   #43 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by jonnyg4508 View Post
Luck or chance: is fortune (whether bad or good) which occurs beyond one's control, without regard to one's will, intention, or desired result.

I would say Serra had control of his punches. And it wasn't beyond his control.
Thats one way to cherry pick a definition, where did you get it? firstly, from dictionary.com

1.the force that seems to operate for good or ill in a person's life, as in shaping circumstances, events, or opportunities: With my luck I'll probably get pneumonia.
2.
good fortune; advantage or success, considered as the result of chance: He had no luck finding work.
3.
a combination of circumstances, events, etc., operating by chance to bring good or ill to a person: She's had nothing but bad luck all year.
4.
some object on which good fortune is supposed to depend: This rabbit's foot is my luck


Secondly, even using your definition we can still arrive at luck beyond your intention. Using the Serra example you need to ask the question what was the main factor in his win? His own ability or the surrounding circumstances (ie GSP's carelessness, lack of focus)

If GSP is the overall better fighter, the fight will go beyond one's control and against one's own will. Regardless of whether you think GSP is the vastly superior fighter, the categorization remains the revelant point.

In a fight, 2 forces go against each other, the stronger force becomes the circumstance or fortune that imposes itself on the other actor. When we say someone got lucky, we say it precisely because they were up against a force, which should have, negated their will.
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Old 11-08-2012, 04:26 PM   #44 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by jonnyg4508 View Post
If we are sitting here trying to define luck...then we should be able to apply it to everything. Using your words you said "it is measured by how likely and how often you are able to do that one thing". You used that notion to back your case. Why can't I use it to back mine? If what you said is what you meant, then a fighter with a smaller % of victory beating a fighter with a higher % (or probability) of victory...is luck...or lucky.

Bottom line is it is not. You know this and I know this. It isn't because 2 pro fighters are in there with tons of practice behind them. Some fighters have off nights. Some have good nights.

GSP may have had an off night. Matt Serra may be lucky to have caught GSP on his "off night" (again fighters aren't machines)...but taht actual punch and result wasn't luck.

With this logic...If GSP finishes anyone in the next 5 years, he will have been lucky. Because these days it is not probable. If he finishes Condit it would be LUCK because Condit rarely gets finishes and GSP rarely finishes. Would this example be correct? Or do we want to cherry pick scenarios some more?

And I agree with your last point. I never said there was no ounce of luck in this. I said Luck in no way out-weighs skill in terms of a fighter KOing another. May be luck in the other defense and timing...but it was skill and practice to do it. Luck is few and far between in this sport.
If GSP came out and casually knocked out Condit, yes, I would consider that to be lucky.

We all seem to have different interpretations of what actually constitutes as luck though, so we're not getting any where.

We'll have to agree to disagree.
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Old 11-08-2012, 04:31 PM   #45 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GrappleRetarded View Post
If GSP came out and casually knocked out Condit, yes, I would consider that to be lucky.

We all seem to have different interpretations of what actually constitutes as luck though, so we're not getting any where.

We'll have to agree to disagree.
I don't see the difference between GSP casually KOing Condit. Or him performing the same KO after 3 rounds of a hard fought fight. I don't see a difference.

But I do stand by your logic in terms of GSP being LUCKY if he finishes Condit. GSP rarely finishes anyone...even less caliber fighters. Condit rarely gets finished now that he has matured. It will be 100% LUCK if GSP happens to finish anyone let alone Condit. It just isn't PROBABLE.

But then again I don't care for GSP.

Yea I agree to disagree. We really aren't going anywhere.
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Old 11-08-2012, 04:35 PM   #46 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Iuanes View Post
In a fight, 2 forces go against each other, the stronger force becomes the circumstance or fortune that imposes itself on the other actor. When we say someone got lucky, we say it precisely because they were up against a force, which should have, negated their will.
My definition was lazy and was from Wiki.

Thing here is no one can measure the "force" of a fighter.

Some people will say Erick Silva has more KO power than Paul Daley. No one can measure it really.

Some people would say GSP has a weak chin and wilts when he gets hit. Some people would say Serra, although rarely finishes by KO (he is a Jitz guy with short arms) generates a lot of power because he is physically strong and throws power punches most often over jabs and point punches.

It is all opinion as to which force is stronger in MMA. It is all based on opponents faced. Shogun has very few sub wins. Does that mean if he sub'd a solid ground fighter it would be luck? I don't think so.

There is no science to this. Just loads of practice. Years of it. To do exactly what Serra did. I myself can't count that as luck.
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Old 11-08-2012, 04:46 PM   #47 (permalink)
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There is no such thing as a lucky punch, since the fighter threw the punch with the intention of it landing on the opponent.

If, however, the fighter didn't throw a punch at all and the opponent still got knocked out... That is a lucky punch. :P
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Old 11-08-2012, 04:50 PM   #48 (permalink)
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Certainly there is no direct measure. Hence the joy in watching a fight.

Read my 2nd last post concerning the degree of luck required. I agree its never all luck.

To say however, because I intended, there was no luck involved, is as preposterous as saying Serra winning was entirely lucky.

I can do and have trained to do a pretty good tornado kick. If I fight Anderson Silva and honestly think to myself, I'm going to try a tornado kick and knock him out, and then, I actually do, there's no better word choice to describe what happened but as 'lucky'.
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Old 11-08-2012, 04:53 PM   #49 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by hellholming View Post
There is no such thing as a lucky punch, since the fighter threw the punch with the intention of it landing on the opponent.

If, however, the fighter didn't throw a punch at all and the opponent still got knocked out... That is a lucky punch. :P
What about the punches the fighter doesn't intend?

Training can lead to automation, when a fighter is rocked, he might throw an unconscious punch and hit. Again, if he connects, one would have to say it was rather lucky, but one would also have to credit the training involved to cement that automation.

In this case, intent at the moment, has nothing to do whatsoever with the 'luck' of the outcome.
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Old 11-08-2012, 05:07 PM   #50 (permalink)
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If someone asked me if GSP was exciting I would tell you "hell no". But the notion that he doesn't win impressively is just so retarded it makes my brain hurt.
It was a simple and fair question. You could respectfully give your answer like other posters did. Now because you get impressed easier than me you feel like offending people. I suggest you undergo a brain scan 'cause your brain may be hurting for some other reason.


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