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Old 11-08-2012, 04:17 PM   #51 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by jonnyg4508 View Post
Luck or chance: is fortune (whether bad or good) which occurs beyond one's control, without regard to one's will, intention, or desired result.

I would say Serra had control of his punches. And it wasn't beyond his control.
The thing is, people are not fully in control in a striking exchange, because the movement partly so fast that it is beyond the reaction time of their nervous system.

That's why you occasionally see great strikers getting KOed by mediocre strikers, but you will almost never see a great grappler getting submitted by a mediocre grappler (gotten beat up before aside).

Of course, it's not pure luck if a mediocre striker KOes a great striker, because he has trained to strike, but there certainly is a luck factor in it.

Striking is maybe comparable to poker, where you can train your calculating abilities, psychology etc., but still there is a luck factor. A good poker player would win most of the times, but even a complete beginner could win if he gets good cards. Grappling is more like chess where the better player would basically always win against a weaker opponent. That's because your brain can react much faster on tactile information than on visual information.
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Old 11-08-2012, 04:26 PM   #52 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Iuanes View Post
To say however, because I intended, there was no luck involved, is as preposterous as saying Serra winning was entirely lucky.

I can do and have trained to do a pretty good tornado kick. If I fight Anderson Silva and honestly think to myself, I'm going to try a tornado kick and knock him out, and then, I actually do, there's no better word choice to describe what happened but as 'lucky'.
There in lies the difference, these are all pros that get paid to fight MMA. Matt Serra was a capable fighter. A vet. GSP was still fairly young, had all the confidence at the time...and was caught by a guy who trained MMA for years. Who works with a hell of a boxing coach daily...

It also would matter exactly how effective or or good your kick was. Is it world class? I would be surprised if Maia beat Anderson in and MMA fight even by sub. But in a straight BJJ contest I would expect him to win by a wide margin.

If Damien Maia intended on subbing Anderson (which he was) in an MMA fight...and pulled it off...I wouldn't call that luck. He is a BJJ Ace and trained to do that. As much of an MMA upset it would of been...it wouldn't of been luck.

If you had a world class kick...like Maia's world class BJJ. And happened to catch Anderson standing...I wouldn't be surprised. Again, we are talking pro fighters...and yourself.

Serra didn't have world class striking. But he was more experienced. He wasn't as young and naive. He had nothing to lose. It isn't out of the question that he was simply better that night and was more game for the fight.
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Old 11-08-2012, 04:36 PM   #53 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Voiceless View Post
The thing is, people are not fully in control in a striking exchange, because the movement partly so fast that it is beyond the reaction time of their nervous system.

That's why you occasionally see great strikers getting KOed by mediocre strikers, but you will almost never see a great grappler getting submitted by a mediocre grappler (gotten beat up before aside).

Of course, it's not pure luck if a mediocre striker KOes a great striker, because he has trained to strike, but there certainly is a luck factor in it.

Striking is maybe comparable to poker, where you can train your calculating abilities, psychology etc., but still there is a luck factor. A good poker player would win most of the times, but even a complete beginner could win if he gets good cards. Grappling is more like chess where the better player would basically always win against a weaker opponent. That's because your brain can react much faster on tactile information than on visual information.
I don't agree with this fully. I get what you are saying by how for split seconds no fighter can react in such manner to fully use his skill and technique. But Anderson pretty much never lets anyone get lucky...and he strikes all the time...and he lets people hit him.

And you are not factoring in gameplan or predictability in fighting. Sure some elite strikers get beat by average strikers. You may say a perfect example is Gonzo/Cro Cop? Seems like a nice example right? But CC didn't expect a high kick from him. He expected him to try and work his Jitz. That is a larger reason why the better striker got caught than any luck. Gonzo most likely practiced that. He had the balls to try and throw it vs. CC and timed it perfectly. You know how hard it is and how good you have to be to time and reach a high kick? Gonzo was smart enough to do the unthinkable. He threw the kick, so he intended on landing it. It did. The better striker in not going to always win...they aren't machines. But luck really isn't the word when Gonzo out smarted CC and landed a high kick. It isn't like CC has never been caught by lesser striker in practice. Every exchange in a fight is different.
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Old 11-08-2012, 04:51 PM   #54 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by jonnyg4508 View Post
There in lies the difference, these are all pros that get paid to fight MMA. Matt Serra was a capable fighter. A vet. GSP was still fairly young, had all the confidence at the time...
And these were precisely things outside of Serra's control and arguably worked in his favour. This isn't about how lucky if at all, Serra was, but determining that dumb, at the moment intention, somehow nullifies the luck factor.

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Originally Posted by jonnyg4508 View Post
It also would matter exactly how effective or or good your kick was. Is it world class?
It's pretty shit, but it doesn't matter. Most people's striking is shit compared to Silva's. Hence, if I hit Silva, even though I trained the kicked and intended to hit Silva, really, its because Silva or the circumstances of the fight somehow favoured me (luck) that would have been the reason I connected.

Similarly, Maia's striking is relatively shit compared to Silva's. If he knocked Silva out I wouldn't say he could replicate that performance again if they fought 10 times.


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Originally Posted by jonnyg4508 View Post
If Damien Maia intended on subbing Anderson (which he was) in an MMA fight...and pulled it off...I wouldn't call that luck. He is a BJJ Ace and trained to do that. As much of an MMA upset it would of been...it wouldn't of been luck.
Sure, because Maia's BJJ game is much better than Silva's. But it would depend on the circumstances of the victory. Like if Maia had perfected his takedown game and was able to gain dominant positions. No one would call a sub from those positions lucky. He's Maia, thats what he does. But you can't tell me that the Ryo Chonan sub of Silva would be equally 'non-lucky' as the described Maia one. One was likely a desperate attempt (though intended), one was part of a dominant strategy (also intended). What is important here? not the immediate intention of the act, but the forces gathered before the fight.


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Originally Posted by jonnyg4508 View Post
Serra didn't have world class striking. But he was more experienced. He wasn't as young and naive. He had nothing to lose. It isn't out of the question that he was simply better that night and was more game for the fight.
Again, no one's denying that being in the UFC doesnt take skill, as I said before, your luck depends on the relative skill to your opponent. Arguably, Serra even came into the fight with a superior strategy to beat GSP, again we're using the fight as an example, but again, play that fight 10 times and ask yourself what happens.
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Old 11-08-2012, 04:57 PM   #55 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by hellholming View Post
There is no such thing as a lucky punch, since the fighter threw the punch with the intention of it landing on the opponent.

If, however, the fighter didn't throw a punch at all and the opponent still got knocked out... That is a lucky punch. :P
What if you just wildly throw a punch because you just got rocked and ko the other guy? I would say you were lucky since you just threw the punch hoping anything would happen.
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Old 11-08-2012, 05:51 PM   #56 (permalink)
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what a pointless debate, you cant quantify luck, we cant even prove its existence, maybe what we call luck is something else, maybe luck does exist but you create it, thats why some ppl are lucky and some arent...if that were the case then luck would be a skill (i actually do think elite fighters also have luck as a skill)

but still its pointless since no1 can ever really say this or that was lucky, we dont even know the intentions of the blows thrown, not every punch is thrown to end a fight, i remember watching a couple of fights in wich the fighter that won said "i didnt throw it to KO him but i saw that he got rocked so i went for the finish" sure he hit him like he intended to but if the fighter admits that he didnt throw the strike with power to end the fight, but it still did...i guess you could maybe call that luck if you believe in luck but even then its still up for debate, some1 else could simply say it was destiny
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Old 11-08-2012, 05:53 PM   #57 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Iuanes View Post
And these were precisely things outside of Serra's control and arguably worked in his favour. This isn't about how lucky if at all, Serra was, but determining that dumb, at the moment intention, somehow nullifies the luck factor.
How is age and factors such as GSP's confidence luck? It is purely aspects of the fight. That is what happens to over-confident young fighters. All fighters have a wake up moment. How is that luck? I'm not following this at all.

And the fact of what would happen out of 10 times doesn't hold any weight. No one in the sport does that. It is all based on 1 night. Some guys bring it some guys don't. That is why I say they AREN'T MACHINES. It isn't a slot machine, it isn't how many times it hits out of 10 or 100.

Take it for what it is. It was Serra training to take GSP's head off. It was GSP thinking Serra was no match. It was the vet landing a punch and knocking GSP down. It was what he intended to do. Just because a less striker loses. Or lesser fighter loses. Doesn't mean it was luck. Serra was the better fighter that night. He found GSP's chin and GSP let him do so. Serra won the fight like he trained for months to accomplish.
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Old 11-09-2012, 10:51 AM   #58 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by GrappleRetarded View Post
For example, I'm a terrible darts player. If I went into a darts game and my intention was to hit the bullseye with my first shot and I actually hit it, that would be considered an incredibly lucky shot. It doesn't matter if it was my intention to hit the bullseye and I hit it, what matters is the likely-hood of me hitting that bullseye consistently. The chances are very slim, because I'm rubbish.
Not disagreeing in any way. I just would like to use this example to share a thought.
That was a good exemple for a lucky shot, but if you were allowed in that very game to throw several darts in a minimum period of time, the probability of hitting the bull's eye would increase dramatically and luck would be less significant then. So, to throw several darts, if allowed, would be a valid techinique to achieve your goal: bull's eye or KO punch.
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Old 11-09-2012, 10:55 AM   #59 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by MMA-Sportsman View Post
Not disagreeing in any way. I just would like to use this example to share a thought.
That was a good exemple for a lucky shot, but if you were allowed in that very game to throw several darts in a minimum period of time, the probability of hitting the bull's eye would increase dramatically and luck would be less significant then. So, to throw several darts, if allowed, would be a valid techinique to achieve your goal: bull's eye or KO punch.
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Good point.

I play darts maybe twice a year. If I hit the bulleye on my first shot it wouldn't be much of a shock. I probably wouldn't win a complete game, but in a game I will hit the bulleyes a couple times. Doesn't really make a difference if it the 1st throw, the 12th throw, or the last throw.
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Old 11-09-2012, 03:35 PM   #60 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by jonnyg4508 View Post
How is age and factors such as GSP's confidence luck? It is purely aspects of the fight. That is what happens to over-confident young fighters. All fighters have a wake up moment. How is that luck? I'm not following this at all.
By your own definition its something outside of your control or will. In Serra's context he was lucky to fight GSP at a time in his career where he got a little cocky where he thought he didnt need to focus as much.

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And the fact of what would happen out of 10 times doesn't hold any weight. No one in the sport does that. It is all based on 1 night. Some guys bring it some guys don't. That is why I say they AREN'T MACHINES. It isn't a slot machine, it isn't how many times it hits out of 10 or 100.
I know no one does that, the point is how its perceived (since this is largely an argument about semantics). But, guess what happens when people think a guy got a lucky shot in? Usually a rematch happens. Right now GSP and Serra are 1-1, how come no one is clamouring for a rubber match?? Because they know Serra could never reduplicate that performance.


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Take it for what it is. It was Serra training to take GSP's head off. It was GSP thinking Serra was no match. It was the vet landing a punch and knocking GSP down. It was what he intended to do. Just because a less striker loses. Or lesser fighter loses. Doesn't mean it was luck. Serra was the better fighter that night. He found GSP's chin and GSP let him do so. Serra won the fight like he trained for months to accomplish.
I want to separate this argument a little from the Serra fight, because I agree with you, that Serra might have come in with a decent gameplan (body shots setting up a headshot). But he wasn't unlucky simply because he intended a punch, he deserved to win BECAUSE he trained, BECAUSE he had a great a gameplan, not simply because he though to do something at the final moment. The problem is youre taking the final cause without the causes of everything before it. But really thats a very superficial view of reality because many times the final cause is there without the all the work behind it (a lucky punch). Nearly all knockouts require intention, but not all intended knockouts are free from luck.

Don't worry, I know we wont get anywhere with this.
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