I'll say this again, the moment Carlos is trying to kick he will be taken down. GSP isn't the best wrestler or the best striker, his greatest strength is his ability to make his opponent fight handicapped. The constant threat of a take down the moment you get greedy gets into a fighter's head. Imagine you're drilling all those beautiful punch kick combination and then having to "box" half ass because you're scared he will take you to do the ground. That's why Condit won't have such a drastic advantage on the stand up, his wariness will make him tentative.
When the fight goes to the ground (and it will), GSP has the sickest top control. His strength and transition wrestling makes him a beast when on top. You know he won't take stupid gambles (especially early on), so I highly doubt he'll get swept or surprised by the new ninja jujitsu Condit's been learning. Condit has a great gas tank but he'll be put to the test when a sweaty greasy french man is making sweet love from up top.
By R3, Condit will be visibly frustrated and will take bigger gambles outside his "game plan". This is the part where the gamble might pay off (random back fist/flying knee) or where he might get broken by GSP's relentless sweet love making.
I like Condit though and I'm hoping those sweeps he's been practicing pays off but still saying GSP by UD.