Yeah I don't get the "hype" issue with him at all. Let's just run through some of the facts.
1. He should have been given the opportunity to fight Jon Jones in September, the UFC decided to do something very shady and bring in 2-3 MW's to stall the division in particular him from getting his shot. If you are in line for a title shot you are not a product of hype.
2. If he loses this fight to Shogun what happens to him when it comes to the rankings. Does he fall off the face of the earth like he was a WW or LW? Absolutely not, he will still be in the top ten and you won't see to many (or any) guys jump over him in the rankings. He's established himself as a top ten fighter so once again not a product of hype.
3. If he beats Shogun what happens to him? If he finishes Shogun or is more convincing in his victory then Henderson was he becomes the automatic undisputed number one contender. If you are a win away from being the undisputed number one contender you are not a product of hype.
Gus is very, very good at striking. His TDD, on the other hand, is still highly questionable.
When people focus on the strengths of a competitor, while overlooking their weaknesses, that's quintessential hype.
Kind of like the Green Bay Packers last year. It's not that their offense wasn't historically potent, it's that their defense was bad. And everyone saw that, but they ignored it. Which made the team over-hyped.
As for the betting lines I don't have to go very far back to give you examples of them being wildly off the mark.
Yeah, but by your own admission the majority of fans think he's going to walk through this top 5 LHW.
Being over-hyped doesn't mean he's bad, just that people are making him out to be better than he actually is.
Take downs mean very little to Gustaf as his BJJ game is so good. He'll fight off his back, he'll wear a guy out in his guard. And your analogy is horrible, the Packers weren't "hyped" they were unlucky that they drew the SB champion in the 2nd round of playoffs.
He's going to need to lose twice to be out of title relevancy you don't get that way from "hype".