***OFFICIAL*** Alexander Gustafsson vs. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua Thread - Page 4 - MMA Forum - UFC Forums - UFC Results - MMA Videos
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View Poll Results: Your prediction
Alexander Gustafsson 30 60.00%
Mauricio "Shogun" Rua 19 38.00%
Draw 1 2.00%
Voters: 50. You may not vote on this poll

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post #31 of 131 (permalink) Old 11-30-2012, 03:51 PM
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If Shogun gets a takedown I'd be beyond shocked. Gus' TDD is very good.... It won't be an issue in this fight.

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post #32 of 131 (permalink) Old 11-30-2012, 04:06 PM
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Originally Posted by meli083 View Post
My question is, what does he do with another aggressive opponent like Shogun, who isn't nearly as tentative as Silva was?
Silva was tentative with Gustafsson because he knows what James Te Huna did to him and he saw how badly that worked out for him.

One of two things is going to happen in this fight, Shogun is going to knock him out or Gustafsson is going to win.
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post #33 of 131 (permalink) Old 11-30-2012, 06:53 PM
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Originally Posted by SM33 View Post
If you watch the fights, you'll see that Gustaf is not just hype. It doesn't matter who's on his record, just watch the way he fights... he's good.

He didn't finish Thiago Silva... so? He dropped him in the first minute then out-maneuvered him all night, beat him up nicely. Thiago dazed him with a hook... so? It was Thiago's only decent attack and Gus handled it well. Then carried on tooling him.

If he loses to Shogun, it doesn't mean he's hype. It means he fought a tried and true hard man with much more experience than himself. Look at the betting lines, Gustaf is actually favorite.
He's being hyped as a legitimate threat to Jon Jones, and I don't buy that hype for one single second. I don't think he'd be able to do any better than Jones' previous opponents. In fact, I think he'd get obliterated in the first round by Jones. And yes, I have watched his fights, all of his UFC fights to date.

I'm not saying he isn't a top ten fighter, he is, but a Jon Jones killer? Absolutely not. His boxing is.....good, his over all grappling seems to be just above average and he still hasn't been tested against a really competent grappler looking to take him down since the Phil Davis fight.

Again, like I mentioned in the other thread with Rory Macdonald, I don't see a single area in which Gustaffsson really excels in. You'll say his hands, but I don't think they are that out standing. He was getting lit up badly on the feet by James Te Huna.

He's got decent hands and is a competent grappler. Sorry, but that skill set just doesn't cut it if he wants to pose some kind of legitimate threat to Jon Jones.

I think Shogun will pull a James Te-Huna, rush Gus on the feet, bombard him with shots, BUT not get out grappled and beaten up on the ground like Te-Huna did.

Shoguns coming for that knock out and then it's back to square one for The Mauler.
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post #34 of 131 (permalink) Old 11-30-2012, 07:03 PM
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Originally Posted by SM33 View Post
Am I reading that right? It's listing Te-Huna as having only one TD against him?

Originally Posted by John8204 View Post
Yeah I don't get the "hype" issue with him at all. Let's just run through some of the facts.

1. He should have been given the opportunity to fight Jon Jones in September, the UFC decided to do something very shady and bring in 2-3 MW's to stall the division in particular him from getting his shot. If you are in line for a title shot you are not a product of hype.

2. If he loses this fight to Shogun what happens to him when it comes to the rankings. Does he fall off the face of the earth like he was a WW or LW? Absolutely not, he will still be in the top ten and you won't see to many (or any) guys jump over him in the rankings. He's established himself as a top ten fighter so once again not a product of hype.

3. If he beats Shogun what happens to him? If he finishes Shogun or is more convincing in his victory then Henderson was he becomes the automatic undisputed number one contender. If you are a win away from being the undisputed number one contender you are not a product of hype.
None of those are facts.

Take downs mean very little to Gustaf as his BJJ game is so good. He'll fight off his back, he'll wear a guy out in his guard. And your analogy is horrible, the Packers weren't "hyped" they were unlucky that they drew the SB champion in the 2nd round of playoffs.

He's going to need to lose twice to be out of title relevancy you don't get that way from "hype".
Relying on submissions off your back at these levels is a losing proposition. It works sometimes on mid-tier UFC fighters, and it used to work before everyone started cross-training. Not anymore. A guy on Shogun's level won't get caught by someone fighting off his back, guaranteed.

And the Packers were Hyped, you failed to get the point. They were really good, but they weren't as good as their image. They had a shitty defense that everyone turned a blind eye towards.

Originally Posted by jonnyg4508 View Post
Hey I'm a Packers fan, die hard. I mean they won 15 games with statistically one of the worst defenses ever. If you can win 15 games that way they many people will think you will continue to win. Especially coming off a SB. Especially with one of the best QBs in the game. I mean they beat damn good teams all year that way. And the game is becoming more and more about passing. Obviously it didn't work out. They lost to the eventual SB champ. A 2 time champ in like 4 years.
Granted, they weren't playing against scrubs, but they were expected to stroll to the SB. You tell me, how worried were you going into that game against a very good Giants team?

Isn't the poll above like dead even? I mean not that many people think he runs through Shogun. Some do, but some posters on here will go the other way and go real bold in any pick they make.

Some people are think Shogun runs through him. Many see a real good fight. And some think Gustaf will steamroll him. Pretty even fight from the public's perspective. So I wouldn't say his hype comes from "everyone" thinking he will run through a top 5 LHW.

Who knows how good he is. It is hard to say people are making him out to be better than he is when he is like 25 and has handled most everyone given to him. None of us know truly how good he is yet because he has only climbed to a fringe top 10 LHW (Thiago Silva) and won pretty easily. Now we see if he is top 5 worthy. The same 5-7 guys have been top 5 for a while now, if you beat one you can be mentioned with them. Rashad, Machida, Hendo, Shogun, Rampage is falling out of this tier since he doesn't really want to fight anymore, maybe Phil Davis now.
Betting odds are a more accurate representation of popular opinion than polls on this site. and Gus is a massive favorite.

Let me ask you this, what is it about Gustaffson's body of work that makes him almost a 2:1 favourite against Rua? Those odds are pretty high. If you can't think of one major aspect in which Gus outclasses Rua, the logical conclusion is that hype played a part in the way people view this match up.
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post #35 of 131 (permalink) Old 11-30-2012, 08:37 PM
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there is definitely hype surrounding Gus.. that's why with the given odds, betting on shogun is such a good bet.. the educated fan in me says that 60% of the time shogun wins, and the odds show almost 2-1 for gus, low risk high reward.. war shogun

skills alone may not show 60-40 for shogun, but fact is shogun is not gonna be finished by a guy like Gus so we round up because shogun is going to have a full 15 min to put him away...

Last edited by dsmjrv; 11-30-2012 at 08:39 PM.
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post #36 of 131 (permalink) Old 12-01-2012, 10:41 AM
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Shogun always does well when he gets a quick turnaround between fights. It's when he has to sit on the shelf for many months from injuries or lack of opponents that he becomes inconsistent. It'll be 4 months since his last fight when he steps into the cage next week, which is one of the faster turnarounds for him in the UFC. I think he'll do well, should be one hell of a fight.
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post #37 of 131 (permalink) Old 12-01-2012, 02:17 PM
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I have somehow managed to miss every fight Alexander has had in the UFC, and this one will be no exception since I have a show that night, dammit!! However from what I've read and a few highlights I've seen, he seems pretty legit.

I personally believe Shogun deserves every accolade he gets, and that he is one of the true legends of the sport... however I also believe his ship has sailed, so I'm voting for and rooting for the new kid just keep some fresh contenders.
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post #38 of 131 (permalink) Old 12-03-2012, 07:31 PM
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I rate Gustafsson highly but I think Shogun is being overlooked. I think Shogun will eat some punches and then eventually finish Gustafsson. His chin and punching power give him a big advantage.

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post #39 of 131 (permalink) Old 12-04-2012, 01:22 AM
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Originally Posted by the ultimate View Post
I rate Gustafsson highly but I think Shogun is being overlooked. I think Shogun will eat some punches and then eventually finish Gustafsson. His chin and punching power give him a big advantage.
Don't sleep on Shogun's BJJ. He might just take this guy down and sub him. His ground game is far far better than Phil Davis',
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post #40 of 131 (permalink) Old 12-04-2012, 01:40 AM
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Shogun may have all around better Jui-Jitsu but Phil definitely has a better sub game then Shogun. it's basically a myth.

Shogun FTW though

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