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Your prediction

  • Alexander Gustafsson

    Votes: 30 60.0%
  • Mauricio "Shogun" Rua

    Votes: 19 38.0%
  • Draw

    Votes: 1 2.0%

***OFFICIAL*** Alexander Gustafsson vs. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua Thread

13K views 130 replies 50 participants last post by  HadouKEN 
#1 ·
Light Heavyweight bout: 205 pounds

 
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#2 ·
I imagine this will look a lot like Jones/Shogun did on the feet just without the horrid GNP, Shogun lasts the full 15 but Gus takes a lop sided decision.
 
#4 ·
I expect Gustaffson to do some damage on the feet to Shogun as well as over powering Shogun in the grappling aspect of the fight. I'm thinking Gustaffson will prove that he is a top five light heavyweight in this fight. It's hard to say whether he'll stop Shogun or not but either way I'm thinking he'll do some damage.
 
#8 ·
Can't really pick. Gustaf is very good but has never beat anyone like SHogun, even a crumbling Shogun. He could come up and destroy him. But if the Shogun vs. Forrest 2 or Machida 2 comes out he is better than Gustaf right now.

I think Shogun still has Pride. Wins this on heart and aggression that Gustaf won't handle.

Shogun Rd 2 KO.
 
#9 ·
I'm not completely sure but I don't think Gustafson is ready to get hit hard. The Vera fight was a war because among other things, Shogun started to gas and because Vera is a battle-tested veteran who has experience in furious battles. We'll see what Gustafson is able to handle, hopefully he won't back down because the division needs him to be the real deal if anyone is going to challenge Jones beyond Machida or possibly Mr. Wonderful.

Gustaf will play it cautiously and possibly win on points, unless Shogun can control the fight on the ground. Shogun needs to show this guy just how hard he can hit though and keep Gustaf guessing.
 
#19 ·
Gustaf has never impressed me, he is not even top ten material. he is slow, doesn't have heavy hands, mediocre strength, just nothing spectacular about the guy.. he wont be able to finish Rua but i guess he could steal a SD or UD if he has a good night.
 
#45 ·
I'm in a torn situation (Like Gus as an up and comer, plus he's one of the guys in my NPFFL). However, that being said... Shogun is one of my favourite fighters and want that above pic on Sat as he wins via T(KO).


I think it comes down to who wants it more, cub lion vs. middle aged lion. Someone's gotta eat :)

Shogun: He's a berserker, great MT and very underrated BJJ ground game. He's got a serious chin that's been blasted by JJ, Hendo, Rampage, Lyoto, Liddel and hasn't been KO'd. He's probably got the biggest heart in the UFC if not MMA, to come back from a beating Hendo was giving him.

When he engages, he eats punches to land devastating blows on his opponents. His GnP is one of the best in the game as is his killer instincts.

His weakness has to be cardio (with heavier grapplers/wrestlers) and the re-injuring of his knees (constant surgeries).

Gus: Young, great height and technical stand-up. He's a great up and comer with lots of potential. I'm inclined to agree with most that have posted about his power (haven't seen his true potential to KO guys).

He's hungry and the loss to Mr. Wonderful put him on the path to redemption.


If Shogun comes in (like the Vera fight), it'll be a long night for both men.... probably getting a split decision to Shogun. It'll be an absolute war of attrition.

If Shogun is fresh and ready, I say he stops Gus cold within the first 1-2 rounds. It's a bold call but I think Gus may need a few more fights to overtake the top 3-5 guys in the division.

Can't wait for Saturday night!c:thumb02:
 
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#22 ·
If you watch the fights, you'll see that Gustaf is not just hype. It doesn't matter who's on his record, just watch the way he fights... he's good.

He didn't finish Thiago Silva... so? He dropped him in the first minute then out-maneuvered him all night, beat him up nicely. Thiago dazed him with a hook... so? It was Thiago's only decent attack and Gus handled it well. Then carried on tooling him.

If he loses to Shogun, it doesn't mean he's hype. It means he fought a tried and true hard man with much more experience than himself. Look at the betting lines, Gustaf is actually favorite.
 
#24 ·
Gus is very, very good at striking. His TDD, on the other hand, is still highly questionable.

When people focus on the strengths of a competitor, while overlooking their weaknesses, that's quintessential hype.

Kind of like the Green Bay Packers last year. It's not that their offense wasn't historically potent, it's that their defense was bad. And everyone saw that, but they ignored it. Which made the team over-hyped.

As for the betting lines I don't have to go very far back to give you examples of them being wildly off the mark.

I don't like how people throw around "hype". What hype? He is young as hell and has destroyed most everyone since getting caught by Phil Davis when he was like 22 years old. No one is anointing him the next champ. They are anointing him a young challenger to the top guys. The term "hype" gets thrown around way too often.

So if he loses to a top 5ish LHW it means he was hype? No it means he was beat by a top 5 LHW.

I think people are overrating him in this particular fight. Where Gustaf is more than a 2to1 favorite. Which I think is nuts. But Gustaf has skills no doubt. How those skills match up vs. a guy like Shogun compared to a Thiago Silva? We don't know yet?
Yeah, but by your own admission the majority of fans think he's going to walk through this top 5 LHW.

Being over-hyped doesn't mean he's bad, just that people are making him out to be better than he actually is.
 
#23 ·
I don't like how people throw around "hype". What hype? He is young as hell and has destroyed most everyone since getting caught by Phil Davis when he was like 22 years old. No one is anointing him the next champ. They are anointing him a young challenger to the top guys. The term "hype" gets thrown around way too often.

So if he loses to a top 5ish LHW it means he was hype? No it means he was beat by a top 5 LHW.

I think people are overrating him in this particular fight. Where Gustaf is more than a 2to1 favorite. Which I think is nuts. But Gustaf has skills no doubt. How those skills match up vs. a guy like Shogun compared to a Thiago Silva? We don't know yet?
 
#34 ·
Am I reading that right? It's listing Te-Huna as having only one TD against him?

Yeah I don't get the "hype" issue with him at all. Let's just run through some of the facts.

1. He should have been given the opportunity to fight Jon Jones in September, the UFC decided to do something very shady and bring in 2-3 MW's to stall the division in particular him from getting his shot. If you are in line for a title shot you are not a product of hype.

2. If he loses this fight to Shogun what happens to him when it comes to the rankings. Does he fall off the face of the earth like he was a WW or LW? Absolutely not, he will still be in the top ten and you won't see to many (or any) guys jump over him in the rankings. He's established himself as a top ten fighter so once again not a product of hype.

3. If he beats Shogun what happens to him? If he finishes Shogun or is more convincing in his victory then Henderson was he becomes the automatic undisputed number one contender. If you are a win away from being the undisputed number one contender you are not a product of hype.
None of those are facts.

Take downs mean very little to Gustaf as his BJJ game is so good. He'll fight off his back, he'll wear a guy out in his guard. And your analogy is horrible, the Packers weren't "hyped" they were unlucky that they drew the SB champion in the 2nd round of playoffs.

He's going to need to lose twice to be out of title relevancy you don't get that way from "hype".
Relying on submissions off your back at these levels is a losing proposition. It works sometimes on mid-tier UFC fighters, and it used to work before everyone started cross-training. Not anymore. A guy on Shogun's level won't get caught by someone fighting off his back, guaranteed.

And the Packers were Hyped, you failed to get the point. They were really good, but they weren't as good as their image. They had a shitty defense that everyone turned a blind eye towards.

Hey I'm a Packers fan, die hard. I mean they won 15 games with statistically one of the worst defenses ever. If you can win 15 games that way they many people will think you will continue to win. Especially coming off a SB. Especially with one of the best QBs in the game. I mean they beat damn good teams all year that way. And the game is becoming more and more about passing. Obviously it didn't work out. They lost to the eventual SB champ. A 2 time champ in like 4 years.
Granted, they weren't playing against scrubs, but they were expected to stroll to the SB. You tell me, how worried were you going into that game against a very good Giants team?

Isn't the poll above like dead even? I mean not that many people think he runs through Shogun. Some do, but some posters on here will go the other way and go real bold in any pick they make.

Some people are think Shogun runs through him. Many see a real good fight. And some think Gustaf will steamroll him. Pretty even fight from the public's perspective. So I wouldn't say his hype comes from "everyone" thinking he will run through a top 5 LHW.

Who knows how good he is. It is hard to say people are making him out to be better than he is when he is like 25 and has handled most everyone given to him. None of us know truly how good he is yet because he has only climbed to a fringe top 10 LHW (Thiago Silva) and won pretty easily. Now we see if he is top 5 worthy. The same 5-7 guys have been top 5 for a while now, if you beat one you can be mentioned with them. Rashad, Machida, Hendo, Shogun, Rampage is falling out of this tier since he doesn't really want to fight anymore, maybe Phil Davis now.
Betting odds are a more accurate representation of popular opinion than polls on this site. and Gus is a massive favorite.

Let me ask you this, what is it about Gustaffson's body of work that makes him almost a 2:1 favourite against Rua? Those odds are pretty high. If you can't think of one major aspect in which Gus outclasses Rua, the logical conclusion is that hype played a part in the way people view this match up.
 
#35 · (Edited)
there is definitely hype surrounding Gus.. that's why with the given odds, betting on shogun is such a good bet.. the educated fan in me says that 60% of the time shogun wins, and the odds show almost 2-1 for gus, low risk high reward.. war shogun

skills alone may not show 60-40 for shogun, but fact is shogun is not gonna be finished by a guy like Gus so we round up because shogun is going to have a full 15 min to put him away...
 
#36 ·
Shogun always does well when he gets a quick turnaround between fights. It's when he has to sit on the shelf for many months from injuries or lack of opponents that he becomes inconsistent. It'll be 4 months since his last fight when he steps into the cage next week, which is one of the faster turnarounds for him in the UFC. I think he'll do well, should be one hell of a fight.
 
#37 ·
I have somehow managed to miss every fight Alexander has had in the UFC, and this one will be no exception since I have a show that night, dammit!! However from what I've read and a few highlights I've seen, he seems pretty legit.

I personally believe Shogun deserves every accolade he gets, and that he is one of the true legends of the sport... however I also believe his ship has sailed, so I'm voting for and rooting for the new kid just keep some fresh contenders.
 
#51 ·
So, that's a respectful fighter. Way to go, Gus. When you guys see me complaining about some disrespectiful brawlers we have around, please remember this interview just to have a clue where my reference stands.

There are lots of fighters with this kind of attitude, and in the end of the day, they have to go up in the cage in a war anyway.

Shogun is a gent himself and I must root for him, though, because I am a big fan. May the best fighter win, anyway.
 
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