That only makes sense considering how often JDS has been taken down and dominated on the ground. Oh wait... it looks like that has never happened in the UFC. Not once. Not even against Cain. Who, in fact, was casually shrugged off in their first fight.
So what makes you think this fight will be any different? What have you seen that makes you think JDS is a fish out of water? The one sub attempt by Carwin that never came close to finishing him? Or the multitude of "superior" grapples he has left koed on the mat? Which do you weigh more? Because if it's the first you really need to lay off the pipe.
The only times we have actually seen JDS on the ground for any extended period of time, he was easily swept and put in a choke position by Shane Lactic Acidosis Carwin, and the other time he was easily submitted:
There is also a training video of JDS rolling on the matt with Lyoto Machida floating about the internet. He really just doesn't look fluid or adept in BJJ at all.
I think that the rematch will go differently because in the history of this sport, rematches almost always end up having vastly differently results than the original fights. I.e. BJ Penn/Hughes 1, BJ Penn/Hughes 2, Randy Couture/Liddell 1, compared to the two other rematches, Andrei Arlovski/Sylvia 1, compared to the other matches..... Just a few off the top of my head in high profile championship bouts where rematches have occurred after the original fights being so decisive and one sided.
The other reason I think it will go differently is because I believe Cain Velasquez is a top three MMA wrestler (much, much better than Chad Mendes in every aspect of wrestling LL) and I believe if he comes into the fight with a heavy grappling based game plan, he will comfortably take Junior down and have his way with him on the ground.I think Cains wrestling is just THAT good.
People were claiming that Machida had godlike take down defense, then when he fought Jon Jones, a monster wrestler that actually tested him in that department, people thought differently after the fight was over.
Fact of the matter is, JDS still hasn't been tested against a monster wrestler with a game plan for take downs, just like Machida hadn't before he fought Jones. Carwin is a very strong guy, but his MMA wrestling has never been impressive. Roy Nelson desperately shooting for take downs certainly doesn't count as a legitimate test. In comes Cain Velasquez, a man who easily dumped Brock Lesnar onto the mat with a single leg take down. I personally just think his wrestling is on another level and believe he's going to showcase that aspect of his game in all of it's glory come Satruday.
Only time will tell.