You can start the age old argument that control is weighed to heavily but it doesn't change the fact that its how the sport is scored and Guida can work it. People are forgetting a guy like Denis Siver was a mediocre LW and he is lighting the world on fire at FW not because he was a small LW but because the entire FW division is a step back, hell Lentz himself dropped two fights to mid level LW's. Guys like Guida and Edgar are gonna expose the lower talent level at FW. Look at Kenny Florian the guy moved down got a title shot and had a somewhat competitive fight with the division kingpin despite the fact that KenFlo looked god awful at FW, he physically looked drained and unhealthy. Guida was a perenial contender at LW because despite the hate he is a very competent fighter who just wasn't good enough to earn a title shot at LW. He is good enough to earn that shot at FW and IMO will likely establish himself as the #2 guy in the division.
I understand Guida can win with control.
I'm saying last night wasn't some good example of it or some evidence that he will beat a ton of guys at 145. He won a split decision using his best grinding. Many thought he lost. Wasn't like he went out there and won a 30-27 Fitch Grind. I understand grinding works. But winning a split than many felt he lost isn't some foreshadow to what he will do.
Siver has looked WAY better at 145. Guida didn't look any better last night than his usual fight at 155 vs. decent opponents. Yes 145 is a easier division. He will beat his share, but he will easily lose vs. the Mendes' of the world. Hioki has crap TDD and Guida struggled to wrestle him many times. Guida's wrestling isn't that of a Mendes or even close. His striking sucks. His BJJ defense is solid.
Sure he will win some fights. But cruise through until he reaches the top 2 guys? Doubtful. Nothing he did last night says he will. Unless you truly believe Hioki is a legit top 5 FW. A guy with even decent TDD will stuff Guida many times.
I would pick these guys over him with confidence: obviously Aldo and Edgar. Poirier, Mendes, Lamas, Lentz, Siver. I think Stun Gun would have a good chance to pull something off. Yahya would be a handful on the ground. Hell Manny may beat him. Bart P would give Guida a good run. Oliveria would be a handful on the ground. Not sure about Cub. Need to see more of Hacran Dias before I make any judgement there. Koch with his length would be a handful for Guida to take down and keep there. Standing he would murder Guida.