Maia took 185 Chael Sonnen down quite easily and we already know when Maia can't take you down he just climb on your back and makes you his mule.
No, we don't know these things. He couldn't take Silva down and crumbled mentally. He couldn't take Munoz down and resorted to sloppy striking. He couldn't take Weidman down, and ditto. Maia has looked like a beast at WW, but let's be honest... he's had the size advantage in every fight. I'm not going to dismiss his wins because they've been very impressive, and I'm a Maia fan. But he'd better be expecting to come in and face a MW in Rory because that's what he'll get. And if Maia struggled with the strength of Munoz, then Ares is going to have his way with that ass.
Of course it's possible for Maia to take Rory down. If I recall correctly, Penn managed a takedown, albeit Rory wasn't down for long. But it's hardly a long shot to predict Rory being the one to shrug off Maia's advances, bully him about, and win the striking battles. It's a very intriguing fight, and it really does depend on if Maia can get the fight to the ground. But again, we're talking about a guy who's much bigger and stronger than Fitch, Story, and even Stun Gun. Rory Mac is freaking huge and has the know how and skill to go along with his size.
Still, it's a very 'dumb' great fight. If Rory wins, he most likely doesn't face GSP and Maia gets set back.