Diaz isn't even that much of a draw if PPV payouts are any indication.
If Nick only drew 280K fighting with BJ, that's hardly an indication of any great drawing power.
And if someone attempts to claim the 800K for GSP vs Diaz proves that Diaz is a draw, then they need to explain how Diaz is more of a draw than Hardy and Shields who did similar numbers fighting GSP.
Given that Diaz vs Condit drew 400K (maybe average, but on the lower side of the average for PPVs) seems to me the indications are that Diaz is not the 'deciding factor' when it comes to UFC PPVs pay outs.
So, to recap: Diaz is a pain in the butt, unreliable, unstable, unsportsmanlike in and out of the ring, doesn't really draw all that great, is a perpetual whiner, and unless you're a fan of robot-fight-league style fights (walking forward swinging your arms not caring if you take shots) then he's not a very exciting technical fighter (yeah, I know he has sick GJJ skills, he just doesn't make use of them much in his fights) .. the the 'just bleed' fans he's probably exciting, but the numbers don't seem to suggest that 'just bleed' draws more fans than those who like to watch 'excellence of execution'.
So, given all that I don't see Dana, who probably looks at the numbers as much as anyone, being all the worried about whether Diaz statys or goes ... I'm guessing he probably leans more to the "I kinda hope he leaves before I have to make the decision for him" side.
Personally I think the only reason he gets played as being so 'popular' is that the media likes him because he doesn't give standard answers to their questions. The media wants him to stay more than MMA fans do.
Since UFC 100
PPVs 300K and less:
01/02/2010 UFC 108 Evans vs. Silva 300,000
02/06/2010 UFC 109 Couture vs. Coleman 275,000
02/21/2010 UFC 110 Nogueria v. Velasquez 240,000
04/24/2010 WEC 48 Aldo vs. Faber 175,000
01/01/2011 UFC 125 Edgar vs. Maynard II 260,000
02/27/2011 UFC 127 Penn vs. Fitch 260,000
10/08/2011 UFC 136 Edgar vs. Maynard III 225,000
10/29/2011 UFC 137 Penn vs. Diaz 280,000
11/19/2011 UFC 139 Henderson vs. Rua 290,000
01/14/2012 UFC 142 Aldo vs Mendes 215,000
06/23/2012 UFC 147 Silva vs. Franklin II 140,000
07/21/2012 UFC 149 Faber vs. Barao 230,000
08/11/2012 UFC 150 Henderson v. Edgar II 190,000
PPVs 700K and more
07/11/09 UFC 100 Lesnar v. Mir 1,600,000
08/08/09 UFC 101 Penn v. Florian 850,000
03/27/2010 UFC 111 GSP vs. Hardy 770,000
05/29/2010 UFC 114 Evans vs. Jackson 1,000,000
07/03/2010 UFC 116 Lesnar vs. Carwin 1,060,000
10/23/2010 UFC 121 Lesnar vs. Velasquez 900,000
12/11/2010 UFC 124 GSP vs. Koscheck 785,000
02/05/2011 UFC 126 Silva vs. Belfort 725,000
04/30/2011 UFC 129 GSP vs. Shields 800,000
04/21/2012 UFC 145 Jones vs. Evans 700,000
07/07/2012 UFC 148 Silva vs. Sonnen II 925,000
11/17/2012 UFC 154 GSP vs. Condit 700,000
03/16/2013 UFC 158 GSP vs. Diaz 800,000
Source:
http://mmapayout.com/blue-book/pay-per-view/