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Old 04-03-2013, 03:41 PM   #201 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by John8204 View Post
Getting a finish is a big deal in MMA, and luck tends to be a factor in it. Their is a reason they give bonuses to finishes the more spectacular or "lucky" the finish the more likely the bonus. I've seen Tim Boetsch over Okami (1 minute into the third), Chris Leben subbing Okami (4 minutes in), Carlos Condit KOing Rory (10 seconds left) all called "Hail Mary's". You may not like the jargon and feel like their is some sort of negative co-notation to it. But I feel like this is more a psychological issue you have than something that is applicable to the sport. The sport has rules, the biggest one is the 10-9 must scoring system you must win rounds to win fights when you've lost on the 10-9 must scoring and pull out the win it's a Hail Mary.




It was perhaps the most one sided beat down scoring wise in UFC championship history. I get the bias, Silva has a lot of fans but three of those rounds the judges gave out 10-8's I just watched Filho/Branch fight and Filho did nothing for three rounds and only got 1 10/8. When they talk about Silva they will talk about the run, the kick, his LHW fights but they are also going to talk about the comeback.



You used a very important line earlier in this discussion you said "at this level". And you know what you really need to apply that here. Luck plays a huge roll you can look at Hughes/Trigg, Jackson/Arona, and Couture/Belfort getting those subs, beings a little stronger, or just getting a lucky swing can make all the difference in a fighters career.

Woody Allen said it best in Match Point about Tennis, I think he got it right.

Scoring wise sure, I'm not dispuiting that, actually it kind off falls into the point I was making.

I mean compare it to a fight like Cung Le vs Scott Smith one. That to me was lucky. Smith was clearly outmatched in striking-skill the whole fight and only landed that punch due to Le gassing. And even then I wouldn't say it was just luck since cardio is a big part of the game but still, Smitt was easily outclassed in skill and basicly was lucky to have better cardio if you have to call anything luck or hail mary, that's as close as you get imo.
Now compare this to a grappling situation where someone was outclassed, like Brian Stann vs Sonnen. There was no way in hell Stann would even come close to Subbing Sonnen since he had no idea what to do with different positions etc.


When it comes to the Silva/Sonnen fight, Silva wasn't outmatched in grapplingskills at all & what people call Silva getting dominated was only on the scoreboards. Like I stated before that was due to the styles of the fighters, ofcourse the pointfighter is going to be leading on the scoreboards until he gets finished or time runs out. But it wasn't Sonnen outclassing Silva in skill, Silva didn't even try to get up, who knows if he could have? He went for the sub in every round and because of that he fell behind on the scorecards since you can't score while trying to sub someone from your back. It's pretty much the big dilema of BJJ & the guard, that if you fail to sub the guy you are going to lose on points in MMA since the guy on top is scoring constantly.

That doesn't necessarily mean the guy on the bottom is ouclassed in skill in any way, it's just how the game works.

It's not like Silva was clueless on the ground, being dominated like Brian Stann or someone of that caliber, it just took him a while to get the setup for the win, but he was in the game the entire fight on the ground. Was it close? sure, but lucky hell no I don't agree with that at all.
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Old 04-03-2013, 03:44 PM   #202 (permalink)
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Old 04-03-2013, 04:02 PM   #203 (permalink)
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Hail Mary Submissions are cool.
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Old 04-03-2013, 04:06 PM   #204 (permalink)
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It's almost impossible to say because Sonnen is just getting to LHW now but if I were forced to put money down on these fights, I'd probably bet on Sonnen for all except Belfort, Machida, and Gus.
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Old 04-03-2013, 04:08 PM   #205 (permalink)
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It's almost impossible to say because Sonnen is just getting to LHW now but if I were forced to put money down on these fights, I'd probably bet on Sonnen for all except Belfort, Machida, and Gus.
Why do you think Belfort wins? Not many picked him if I remember correctly
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Old 04-03-2013, 04:23 PM   #206 (permalink)
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Why do you think Belfort wins? Not many picked him if I remember correctly
I picked him, because his aggressive grappling against Jones impressed me and submissions have always been Sonnen's weakness. And Belfort looks hungry these days (other than Rua for example).
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Old 04-03-2013, 04:26 PM   #207 (permalink)
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Better question is why does anyone think gus wins? Creamed by davis but somehow has good enough wrestling to stop chael?... don't think so
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Old 04-03-2013, 05:24 PM   #208 (permalink)
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Better question is why does anyone think gus wins? Creamed by davis but somehow has good enough wrestling to stop chael?... don't think so
Gus has improved a lot since the Davis fight. Gus imo would probably lose.
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