I think Chael's going to do a lot better than most of you think, while still getting beaten up. Jones has fought a lot of guys that stand in front of him, Chael needs to get close and push Jones backwards.
My guess is it's a 3rd round TKO but Chael gives Jones some trouble before hand, Jones being tall and lanky naturally suffers the disadvantage in leverage in the wrestling portion of the fight so Chael needs to keep his head down and try to push Jones around. If he stands still for 10 seconds he'll start to be done. Jones has never really been pushed back, he is the master of lulling guys into his range and rhythm but Chael being Chael charges forward like a bull. Should atleast be a good fight for a round or two until Chael can't eat any more elbows. This isn't Thales Leites or Maia that are hopeless, Chael is more like a mini Brock Lesnar. Jones' spinning fancy moves and elbows work best when he's lulled his opponents into watching him, he won't be able to do that stuff if Chael can push him against the cage and ram his shoulder into Jones midsection