His wrestling is much better than Mir's, and he has a good enough ground game to not get caught in any submissions. The stand-up is fairly even.
This. Plus his cardio/durablility which is WAAAAAY better than Mir's, should come into play. Many HW fights go the way of better cardio if there is no devastating KO in round 1. Barnett's cardio is much better than Mir's. And Barnett is one of the tougher guys in the division. Mir is not.
Yes, he is losing to top guys for the most part, but he does NOTHING in those matches. Vs. DC he brought nothing. Vs. Lesnar and Carwin he could do nothing. Vs. JDS it was just a joke. The only fight in his last 6 where Mir looked good at all was vs. Roy Nelson. Where he had to use wrestling to control him for 3 rounds. Other than that he got lit up by Nog, bullied by Carwin, Lesnar, and DC, and out-classed and exposed as a one-dimensional BJJ guy by JDS.
I love how people expect Mir to just land subs. Yes he is good on the ground...but what ways has he sub'd guys? The Nog sub was damn impressive. Choking out Kongo when he was already out? Kneebaring Lesnar when he was green as F, and gave him a leg to take? Subbing Hardonk, a kickboxer? Mir is sometimes a fat slob off his back and lets himself get GnP'd.
I beg to differ. Nogueira probably got a even better ground game compared to Mir. Yet, he still got caught when he decided to roll with Mir.
As for Stand-up, I would agree. It's pretty even. I say Mir will win this via decision.
See I don't understand why some people look at it this way. MMA math doesn't work, so why apply it to the grappling game? Yes, he reversed Big Nog who got way too comfortable and thought Mir had nothing left. That doesn't mean he can just sub anyone now. Sure he has the ability and expode for a sub, but is it probable? It isn't going to happen all the time. Josh Barnett is amazing on the ground. GSP sub'd Matt Hughes but then failed to sub Dan Hardy. It isn't a video game, if they go to the ground it isn't "oh Mir has a better rating in BJJ so that means he subs Josh". Josh is the much better wrestler and has a better top game.
As for striking who knows. All I know is Mir looked awful vs. Big Nog. Yes, he has some flashes. Throwing a roundhouse kick into air when a fight starts is enough to get people to believe he has good striking.. His defense is terrible, his combo's make no sense, he really isn't that versatile, he will throw a couple kicks with no intention on them. His chin is at least suspect. His cardio is below average. Not saying Josh is some striker. But his chin and cardio at least make him more effective over the course of a fight. He may whether an early power punch, where as Mir might not. He will still be moving decent in teh 2nd and 3rd rounds. Mir probably will not. To me Mir is a robotic, too beefed up, wanna be striker. And his chin has taken a few beatings over the years.
I don't care how good Barnett is on the ground, if he starts to feel comfortable, he'll lose an arm.
I am fully aware of how dangerous Mir can be on the ground. But if I have to listen to this cliche over and over again because of the Nog sub I will lose my mind.
In many instances the catch wrestler not only out-grappled, but found a sub on the BJJ guy. Sakaraba vs. the Gracie's? Josh has HIGH level catch wrestling. I think he is fine where ever it goes. The more Mir gets tired the easier it will be for Josh to control him.