I'd say like 10-15%.
He's very inexperienced and coming off a year layoff. That is rough for experienced fighters coming in against a middle of the road/possible contenders, much less someone who has his lack of experience going against the long time MW champion.
If this fight took place 2 years from now with him having more fights under his belt and not coming off such a long layoff, it would be much closer, maybe even in the advantageous range.
"You lack the requisite spine and testicular fortitude to study under me"
“You do not know the first note of the music that moves me.”