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Old 08-30-2013, 03:42 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Gustafsson vs Jones

Does styles make a fight or does Gustafsson not stand a chance?

I believe Gustafsson has a chance but I find it hard to estimate his level from his recent wins

vs Shogun:
He beat Shogun clearly but without stoppage. Shogun lost to Sonnen in the 1st and Jones ate Sonnen alive.

vs Thiago Silva:
Good win, nothing to complain about there.

vs Matyuschenko:
Great win but Matyuschenko just got stopped by Bader and Jones ate Bader alive.

Help me out, will Gus get crushed like Sonnen or Shogun were against Jones ?
Will Gus be able to bring something new to the table that is too big for the Shark to chew ?
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Old 08-30-2013, 04:23 AM   #2 (permalink)
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To see the most likely outcome one has to look at their records.

The LHW title holder's bread and butter is the grappling game whether he's winning the stand up or not. That's his go to move.

Gustaf's lone loss in the UFC is against another grappler by submission.

I like this fight because he's finally facing someone who's similar in physique. What I'm not sure of is whether Gustaf is going to press the action or utilize lateral movement. We all know the LHW title holder excels at keeping the distance offensively or defensively. In the clinch range it's the LHW all day. Therefore Gustaf has to keep within the danger zone of the mid range. If he fires and lands a powerful shot or combinations he can definitely stun the LHW title holder. But the moment that happens he'll go for the takedown.

I still think it's DC or maybe Glover who has the best chance with Gustaf as #3. If Gustaf had DIV. I wrestling then his chances increases if it were Olympic caliber then I'd say he's the favorite.

I'd like to see Weidman go up to LHW though.
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Old 08-30-2013, 06:13 AM   #3 (permalink)
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Im not worried about the range at all, I am worried about the clinch. If Jones show up with super human muscles and go for clinching like he did with Sonnen will Gus be able to make Jones WORK FOR IT?

If Jones can just get very early and easy takedowns I am afraid Jones will inflict too much damage before he needs a rest. That means he can then stand up take it easy and use his range and then go for takedowns as the opportunities present themselves.

Jones vs Sonnen was sick to watch it was like one guy was crushing a bug in his fist. However, Sonnen is a smaller guy so that is why I am wondering if a naturally bigger guy like Gus can create a whole different fight.

Gus has quite a low centre of gravity and great balance. He does not have huge upper body instead have quite thick legs. His takedown defence is excellence. BUT, he has never been up against someone like Jones. I think Gus should have fought Rashad first to be tested against a great wrestler. Why did they never make that fight happen?
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Old 08-30-2013, 06:19 AM   #4 (permalink)
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I dont give Gus much of a chance in this one. Dont really see any areas that he is better than Jones in.

That said, I'm reluctant to totally write him off.
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Old 08-30-2013, 06:21 AM   #5 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by No_Mercy View Post
To see the most likely outcome one has to look at their records.

The LHW title holder's bread and butter is the grappling game whether he's winning the stand up or not. That's his go to move.

Gustaf's lone loss in the UFC is against another grappler by submission.

I like this fight because he's finally facing someone who's similar in physique. What I'm not sure of is whether Gustaf is going to press the action or utilize lateral movement. We all know the LHW title holder excels at keeping the distance offensively or defensively. In the clinch range it's the LHW all day. Therefore Gustaf has to keep within the danger zone of the mid range. If he fires and lands a powerful shot or combinations he can definitely stun the LHW title holder. But the moment that happens he'll go for the takedown.

I still think it's DC or maybe Glover who has the best chance with Gustaf as #3. If Gustaf had DIV. I wrestling then his chances increases if it were Olympic caliber then I'd say he's the favorite.

I'd like to see Weidman go up to LHW though.
Gustaf's lone loss in the UFC is by his corner not telling him he had a second left in that round.

Gustaf pulls guard sweeps Jones and chokes him out, this is how he wins. I don't care how dominant Jon Jones is I know his BJJ is a huge hole and if Gustaf takes advantage he can be champion.
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Old 08-30-2013, 06:37 AM   #6 (permalink)
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Wrestling is wrestling, kickboxing is kickboxing but the mix is what makes MMA.

Example:
Anderson Silva was said to be unstoppable on his feet but was knocked out cold. That was because he was hurt from wrestling first. It became a totally different fight because of the wrestling.

Likewise Jones is said to be unstoppable on the ground but what happens if he gets rocked a few times first standing up? It could become a new situation we have never seen before. Usually Jones uses his energy grounding and pounding but what happens if he already used that energy standing up ?

Jones uses his strength to hold weaker opponents down and then use elbows both for damage and for preventing BJJ. What happens when Jones is losing standing up before he gets his opportunity ? That is why I feel that the takedown defence of Gus is the key of this whole fight.
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Old 08-30-2013, 06:38 AM   #7 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by John8204 View Post
Gustaf's lone loss in the UFC is by his corner not telling him he had a second left in that round.

Gustaf pulls guard sweeps Jones and chokes him out, this is how he wins. I don't care how dominant Jon Jones is I know his BJJ is a huge hole and if Gustaf takes advantage he can be champion.
What makes you so sure that Jones' BJJ is a huge hole?

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Old 08-30-2013, 07:01 AM   #8 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Rauno View Post
What makes you so sure that Jones' BJJ is a huge hole?
He has a nasty habit of leaving his hands on the mat, opens himself up to arm bars/triangles. I believe if Vitor were more patient in his fight with Jones and went for a triangle over an armbar he'd be champion right now.
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Old 08-30-2013, 07:24 AM   #9 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Killz View Post
I dont give Gus much of a chance in this one. Dont really see any areas that he is better than Jones in.

That said, I'm reluctant to totally write him off.
^Basically this for me too.

The only scenario I see Jones losing is because he takes Gustaf lightly. He has made statements like he's looking past Gustaf at HW etc., which is the only thing that puts doubt in my mind.

Other than that, style and skill wise Jones has Gustaf beat in every area pretty much.
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Old 08-30-2013, 08:29 AM   #10 (permalink)
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^Basically this for me too.

The only scenario I see Jones losing is because he takes Gustaf lightly. He has made statements like he's looking past Gustaf at HW etc., which is the only thing that puts doubt in my mind.

Other than that, style and skill wise Jones has Gustaf beat in every area pretty much.
You are totally wrong here. Sonnen is example of being beat in every area, Gus is not. This is wrestler vs boxer, Jones is not a better KO artist than Gus.

Awesome wrestler with long range vs Knockout artist with good footwork and great takedown defence. Stylewise Gus gets advantage in this one but Jones is on such a high level. I am not sure if the style advantage is enough.
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