I don't know... No matter who faces Jones, he's build a good enough record to be favorite.
Personally I think Gus tops Jon in striking technique, speed and power. At least matches him in pacing, conditioning, size, youth and toughness.
Of course these are all just attributes, how the styles gel is the determining factor. Jon is coming off quick turnaround from dislocated toe. I'm not convinced Jones can get in clinch range without being clocked, I said the same about Rampage but at this point in time Gus is ten times the striker Rampage was, is fast and has pop in his strikes. And Jons tactics in that fight weren't really admirable.
I think Gus can hurt/dishearten Jon enough on the feet to weaken his ground game, which when he gets hit hard is his very successful plan B, his bread and butter. Not my prediction, for me this a close fight, fantastic match up. I just think Gus matches Jon's range and can make him go to war... Where Gus is good at dropping people.