I change my mind every week. THIS week I think Gus will win
I want to believe Gus will stand up the 1st round like Machida did but that he will be calmer than Machida and not use up his energy.
I want to believe Gus will start to out strike Jones BEFORE Jones lands a takedown so that Jones have already spent a considerable amount of energy standing up.
I want to believe Gus will take over the fight in the later rounds since Jones has not been able to inflict too much damage on the ground.
Never been impressed by Gus, not sure where all the hype comes from... i hope im just missing something and that he actually gives jones a good fight..
While I know it doesn't work this way, but you would think if he was able to handle Lyoto's movement he should not have a difficult time with Gustaf. Then again with Lyoto you are dealing with someone who is getting out of dodge while Gustaf uses his head and feet better to stay where he is and try not to get hit.
But as I have said before, Gustaf looks like the loser in half the fights he wins because he gets hit way too much.
I think if Jones stands and tries to be patient it won't work as well for him. Gustaf doesn't have the reach of Jones. But he isn't Middleweight Rashad or Machida. He isn't slow, brawling Rampage. I still don't think Bones is a great striker. But he knows how to use his reach and keep fighters guessing.
I think Bones takes Gustaf down early and beats on him. Probably finishing in round 2 or 3 with elbows or a sub.
I'm Swedish myself & don't really care for Jones much so I'm obviously rooting for Alex but hell I think Jones is gonna swat him like a fly. Alex has decent wrestling but no more, Jones has atleast top 3 MMA wrestling in the world IMO. Hes gonna take Alex down and GnP him for a stoppage, maybe even in round 1.
If Jones keeps things standing or Gus somehow is able to stuff Jones' takedowns and keep it standing this fight is going to be a lot more competitive then some people think.
Unfortunately I think Jones will at some point take Gus down and get a submission victory or win based on takedowns and ground and pound.
I don't see any real strategy for victory with Gus in this fight that wouldn't just be gambling with poor odds. The reach and wrestling skill are such daunting hurdles for anyone fighting Bones. You can't fight him on the inside because he will take you down, you can't fight him on the outside because he'll have like a foot of range on you, and you can't take him down because he is a great and versatile wrestler.
I'm still waiting for someone to really brutalize those bird legs with kicks but I haven't seen anything from Gus that would suggest he is that guy.
Osmium summed it up well. You can't stay on the outside against Jones and you can't close the distance without being in trouble. I don't see Gus as the guy to test his legs either.
I think Gustafsson should not play a game of avoiding takedowns at all cost.
Instead Gus gameplan in general should be to try and land as much as possible before being taken down. He should not dance too much like he did against Shogun and Silva, instead he should try to be in Jones face and force Jones to open up and take risks. I want to see volumes of strikes because Jones does not have the hand speed to keep up with Gus in that game.
If the fight looks similar to when 2 heavyweight boxers brawling and trading blows then I think Gus has a big chance of winning.
Very interested in this fight. Finally a young lion with nice record and frame to face Jones. Jones is extremely strong in his torso, but I wonder if Gus can explore Jones "comically thin" legs(asb Joe Rogan). They don't look like they can take much damage.
If Gus gets easily taken to the ground, painful night for him.
Well Gus has shown great balance in his earlier fights. He stopped a lot of takedowns from Phil Davis and he kind of pushed Shougn and Thiago Silva off balance and to the ground a few times using mostly his arms.
I don't know... No matter who faces Jones, he's build a good enough record to be favorite.
Personally I think Gus tops Jon in striking technique, speed and power. At least matches him in pacing, conditioning, size, youth and toughness.
Of course these are all just attributes, how the styles gel is the determining factor. Jon is coming off quick turnaround from dislocated toe. I'm not convinced Jones can get in clinch range without being clocked, I said the same about Rampage but at this point in time Gus is ten times the striker Rampage was, is fast and has pop in his strikes. And Jons tactics in that fight weren't really admirable.
I think Gus can hurt/dishearten Jon enough on the feet to weaken his ground game, which when he gets hit hard is his very successful plan B, his bread and butter. Not my prediction, for me this a close fight, fantastic match up. I just think Gus matches Jon's range and can make him go to war... Where Gus is good at dropping people.
True. But Jones doesn't exactly have a great shot either. It's from the clinch that his takedowns are deadly. Having said that, Im sure Jones knows this and works his shot tirelessly.
Jones is a greco roman clinch guy, I don't think I have ever even seen him shoot of a double leg that wasn't against the fence, in the center of the cage.
I picked Jones for this fight and really do hope that I am wrong. Gus does have a chance but for all the reasons mentioned I cannot see him just tsking this. I would however love to see a flash knock out or a Hail Mary type submission with JBJ as the victim; and I am positive I am not the only one with that sentiment.
What is it, a four inch reach advantage for Jones? I dont get the logic when guys act like Gus has a style that's going to be hard for Jones to beat or that Gus's size is going to mess with Jon's striking.
Its going to be Jon's length, size and striking ability that make this a hard fight for Gus to win not the other way around IMO.
Gus is taller than Jones and has great standup skills including reach, power and footwork. So yes he has the style to beat Jones. Jones cannot stay on safety distance firing single shots or back one step backwards to make opponent swing wild into air. That is what will make this different.
Jones will have trouble doing eye pokes, knee cap kicks and oblique kicks because he will be close to Gus striking range all the time. Furthermore his spinning elbow is probably harder as well since Gus is tall and can hit Jones from above angle i.e overhand.
I don't see this going anyway other than a clear victory for Jones. I don't see Gus stopping the fight and I don't think any fighter is taking this belt without stopping Jones.
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