I'll be interested in a striking battle, but I think Jones takes him down and pounds on him. And as always the threat of a TD goes a long way in striking. If Bones goes out and breaks him down standing that will be really impressive.
The thing that will one day change a Bones fight is power. Just like it almost always does in big time fights. Anderson/Weidman, GSP/Serra, Couture/Brock, Chuck/Rampage and so on especially at the higher few weight classes. Gustaf has to be looking for that well-timed short punch/uppercut/Hendo bomb. If Bones is going to look to stand any, Gustaf has to be looking at hurting him early, not from distance or trying to just put-strike.
This is why I believe Tex has a better chance than Gustaf. I think Tex has that power. And he seems to have more of a chance of keeping it upright. Plus a better chance to sub from anywhere. Out-pointing/out fighting Jones isn't the best gameplan. Power/Speed kill. You have to bum rush him or find a counter.
To add... I kind of blindly went with the wiki 77-ish inch reach for Gus without really backing it up with anything. 7.5 inch reach advantage is a huge amount.
But as more and more photos appear of the two side by side, its clear that the reach thing is a load of bollocks and in fact it's 2 inches at the very most. In my opinion, its less then that.
Looking at this pics:-
Looks to me like Bones knuckles are at most two inches lower. But Gus shoulder is at least 1 inch higher. Whatever the geeky details, its clearly not fecking 7.5 inches. Its considerably less. Enough to mean the physical reach advantage is a total myth. This is a real eye opener for me and a bit of a game changer.
Of course, Jones may well use his reach better. I'm not debating skillsets here. Just physical tools.
Actually this picture has me thinking 7.5 is close. Bones' fingers probably go another half foot past the picture. Bones' arms look more flexed as Gustaf's are more straight down. Even if you give Bones a 2 inch one arm advantage, that times 2 is 4. Then his shoulders are much more broad than Gustaf's. I can easily see the measured difference being pretty close.
Very rare the UFC shorts any decent fighters on their measurables. They ******* tried to sell Carwin at 6'5. The dude is 6 foot nothing. 6'1 at most. Tale of teh tape had Ellenberger and Kampmann both at 6 foot. Ellenberger was a good 4 or 5 inches shorter when they met in the middle. It is laughable how much the UFC exaggerates. 90% of the fighters aren't quite or in some cases not even close to what the UFC says they are.
There will big a significant size advantage for Bones come that night. He is just a bigger guy all around other than pure height and his chick legs. But I think he will be much stronger than Alexander in most all situations.