I can't see Gus upsetting Jones. The matchup has too many problems. If you look at Gus's style, he uses his length in the standup moving in and out of range. His counterpunching is based on his reach advantage. But with Jones, he's at an actual disadvantage. Every once in a while he does slip and weave under punches, but that's not his bread and butter.
I think Jones is actually going to opt to stand with him for a bit. He may have a slight edge on both the feet and the ground. Gus actually needs to be a better fighter in this fight than he's ever been before to have a chance.