Rory is a fearless powerful kid, and it a took a very powerful guy in Lawler to override that. With Rory playing so safe against Ellenberger, then trying the same with Lawler and getting knocked about, he will want to make a statement here but Maia is the one dude he should try to jab to a decision.
If these two lock up, I think Maia has his way. Wouldn't be surprised if Rory plays really safe again, but I think he'll want to unleash his full game here and if he does, Maia is more than capable of weathering the storm and submitting him.
Rory has better striking, is probably more powerful and more unpredictable, but I think Maia finds a way to end this.