I think that a surprise win, or a fluke win would be if it had happened suddenly and unexpected. Barao got whooped for 5 straight rounds and I think that TJ's win was an inspiration. Team Alpha Male's comments are just a joke and I think that Aldo's team returning verbal fire is due to spite, more than just comical retaliation. I think that brazilian champions think too much of themselves, which isn't bad from a competitive standpoint, but sometimes it's not fair to the other representatives of the sport. JDS made such comments after his first loss to Cain, Anderson's camp have done it (especially against Chael after their first encounter). Everyone is not good enough for the brazilian best fighters and it would be nice if they take it down a notch, for their own good I mean. They talk too highly of themselves after a couple of good performances and when they lose it's a shocker for everyone.
I really think that brazilian fighters like Aldo, JDS, Werdum, Silva, Romero and even Barao are super explosive and dangerous... really good fighters, but many of them are extra confident and that does play a bad joke, like a curse on some of their performances in my opinion! That doesn't applies for Manny from Scarface (Wedum), that guy is broad-minded, funny and cool as Jay-Z's hairdresser.
Nonetheless, besides the drama, Aldo vs. Mendes will be an amazing fight, more so after Barao and TJ Dillashaw's shocker of the year.